Crystal Ball - Online Growth to Where ?

Online growth is a frequent topic of discussion, but I wanted to offer a different perspective and look at it a new way. I wanted to tell you where it's all going.

There have been details published of late as it relates to online growth - or more specifically online consumption growth...what, where and how much. Some of the data is fascinating - as are the conclusions we can reach.

• Internet traffic from mobile devices was almost non-existent in 2007, today it's 3% and growing fast - doubling every 8 months
• Apple is now is the 4th largest mobile phone vendor in the world, and the largest 'smart-phone' manufacturer, having surpassed RIM with 90.5% growth in the last 12 months
• Apple's mobile devices account for 42% of internet traffic from all mobile devices
  
• Apple's overall share of the internet (Apple operating systems) is approaching 6% with the largest gains happening from iOS, thats the iPad, iPhone and iPod Touch operating system - (that same 42% from above).
• It's projected that mobile telephony share of internet use is going to be 20% in 2-3 years

What does all this mean ?

It means we'll start to see more and more internet use happening while using our phones (that term- 'phones' may turn out to be as poorly named as a band releasing a new 'album')

It means the awareness and associated pressure created in the marketplace from Apple's initiatives will create entire mini-industries of copy-cat companies - all trying to lure us online from our mobile device with their cheaper, poorer copies

It means the interest in content development (in the form of apps) will continue and get even deeper. This is currently the wild west of offerings with few big companies doing more than dipping their toes. (Remind you of early internet presence where the F500 let start-ups rule until it passed early adopters only ?)

It means you should sell your stock in companies that make 'too-thinly focused' mobile devices like GPS's, music players, cameras, and hand-held gaming systems. They will be "app-ed" out of business

It means we'll develop new thumb repetitive strain injuries and think that's normal

It means the nature of the devices will morph until they are blended into our sunglasses, earpieces and some bright person will come up with the idea of 'implants' to speak to us as thoughts. They don't have to be hand held after-all.

It means consumerism will move more mobily online - if you don't have an ability to sell your company offerings online quickly now - you'd better mobile-ise your online store and do it quick

It means our SSIM chip cards will soon also house some form of payment - call it octopus, oyster or whatever. We'll enter into a new realm of digital commerce where our device takes over our wallets as well and our digital signature will allow us to pay for stuff too

It means you should invest in mobile-battery research companies, as we'll need lots of them

It means all our current trend watches - collaboration, wikinomics, long tails and outliers need to be re-imagined specifically for a mobile enabled society - making some self-appointed business gurus rich with their next books/ibooks

It means the world as we see it today is about to shift again - no more tied-to-your-desk, fiber-enabled, heavy-application centricity for us - we're about to be a truly mobile society, working in the cloud

Technology Heroin

A friend just picked up an iPhone 4 at my behest.

I might have raved a little about it..just a little. Anyway, he hated it interestingly.

I ended up siting down and I helped him set it up after his initial attempts were frustrating and counter-productive. And he liked it a little after that. The interesting piece was that it wasn't the phone, or the new face-time thing, or the nice screen or camera - it was the apps. He'd found a few on his own, and every small app that he liked a little and added seemed to make the overall appreciation for the hardware platform itself get higher and higher.

So I think he's hooked now. Which will be handy, as it'll be nice to have a friend in rehab when we lose these things.

Do you Beleive ?

Many years ago, a smart gentlemen for whom I'm privileged to call my friend and I came up with this title above for how we planed to revitalize our employer.

We developed a program that touched on just about all attributes of how we went to market and interacted with our customer base and redefined them around exceeding customer expectations and developing an almost religious level of zeal for customer success. We knew if we could make our people all about helping our own customers succeed then we'd be great as a business, and we'd have set ourselves apart in a stellar way from our competition.

"Do you Beleive?" was an internally focused program launch reference, that being phase 1 of our metamorphosis as a company. As I look back on my entire work-life there are few moments I'm more proud of, and belive had greater potential than the heady days of re-crafting our company vision and go-to-market strategy. At the same time, the program's death at the hands of vision-less bureaucrats was probably the turning point for me, and the point when I decided to leave them after 16 years.

I was reminded of this time in my life today when reading something written by Donal Daly and his references to Paul O'Dea's work regarding Innocent in the UK..read it here and bookmark that site as Donal's a great writer and offers an interesting perspective 100% of the time.

Innocent seems a company that "gets it", like Zappos or Gap Adventures. All of them understand that success is primarily measured by customer enthusiasm for their offering. If the end result of the transaction completed isn't your customer raving to five of their friends about your company - then you're not trying hard enough.

Now - let's also apply this a little personally - do you believe ? - and I do mean you. If you don't, I'd put forth that you're working at the wrong place, doing the wrong thing for yourself. Change it please - for yourself and others around you. Find the place where you can believe, where you want to be just because you believe it so passionately in what they do, and because you really truly care. The best part is that once you arrive, you'll find your people there.

Collaboration - it's Strengths and Weaknesses

I've had a very interesting day, listening to Don Tapscott, Geoff Cape and Mike Evans at Toronto's Evergreen Brickworks T.H.E. inaugural event. A fascinating presentation about the power of collaboration and the role of technology in the health and environmental movement. A hundred new ideas flooded my brain, and I've felt inspired in many of my existing projects.

There was one interesting discussion in the session based on a question raised on the validity of an article written by Malcolm Gladwell in the current New Yorker magazine. It's here and the thesis of it is that the social networks of today have 'weak ties' that don't support social activism as we've known it. Mr Gladwell, a reknown author who was not present at the THE event seemed to offer a divergent view from Mr. Tapscott and when asked about it, the view of the panel was that Mr. Gladwell was wrong in his assertion - indeed social collaboration tools and possibilities can change our world, and they offered a number of compelling examples.

In thinking about this since I left the Brickworks today, I don't think I agree and here's why.

The heart of the argument Mr. Gladwell makes is that while we can collaborate around an idea, the extension of that is to place oneself at risk (physically, financially,) and this is required for real activism, and he offers examples from the US civil rights movement and a few other moments in recent history. He then cites a series of examples where Facebook or Twitter are credited for having a role, and debunks those statements. While I can't speak to the credibility of his evidence, there does seem to be some merit to the claim, and I'd offer examples from the creation the Brickworks and the social communication vehicles Dr. Evans has created to validate this.

Evergreen Brickworks was created as a result of the vision and desire of Geoff Cape's Evergreen organization to reclaim some of Toronto's past, and give the city an urban green space where history, community and nature meet. It's an admirable dream, and one that's been achieved over 8 long years of work convincing many people and groups to take part. Full credit to the Evergreen organization for marshaling this monumental effort that has resulted in millions invested to revitalize an abondoned industrial site into an urban playground. Was it easy ? I think the answer is clearly no, and it didn't happen off the back of millions of individuals each offering $1 - rather a small number of committed individuals saw Geoff's vision and helped make it a reality, and that in turn helped get other Government, corporate and other benefactors onboard. These first visionaries are Gladwell's social activists in this sense - they placed themselves at risk (financially) in order to reap certain social rewards in a manner others weren't willing to. Altruism at it's best.

Dr. Mike Evans showed some of the great work he's doing, leveraging social media tools into healthcare to be health-proactive and creating collaborative networks around those with similar cares. He had a great quote - "Stories trump data and relationships trump stories". This is the foundational element in creating a video series for cancer victims as they take on the disease and offer insights for other victims - a community aligned around a shared issue. But these victims have clearly done this as they are at risk - and wanted to help other cancer victims - I can't think of a closer analogy to civil rights pioneer's motivation. While these newly created social healthcare groups leverage collaborative tools, they aren't dependent upon them as a means to 'friend' or 'follow' one another - they are doing more, and helping each other directly and tangibly.

The last insight I'll offer comes from Toronto's recent hosting of the G8 and G20 summits - 'the summer of protest' that largely was unsuccessful. (Canadian's tend to apologize after rioting ). Arguably, the authorities defeated the protesters as they'd tapped into the protesters social communications networks and literally planted police amongst these groups. The groups were out-smarted by the police that used (in some cases) very rough means to enforce a sense of calm and peace. This was real social activism in a recognized sense, and it was defeated by the very social collaboration tool set it tried to leverage.

So - is Don Tapscott incorrect in the value of collaboration - not at all - it's a huge advancement and one that may well rock our world as we know it with group think overcoming old, outdated structures. But that doesn't mean it's all powerful, or that it will do everything well. The magic I might point to will be finding the way to get people committed, to get them to place themselves at risk physically or financially using these networks. We're not there yet, but it's the pot of gold at the base of the collaboration rainbow.

Carbon Irony

We are all carbon based life forms - you, me, birds, lobsters, zebra and bees. It's ironic then that carbon has come to represent one of our most pressing planetary issues. You see in it's dioxide form it's a by product of life. Our planet must be able to metabolize it or we overload the system and bad things start to happen. The system self corrects to eliminate all the deposits ( we are these deposits in this sense) in various ways including dropping it into the oceans and ground. Nothing new here, except that it appears we had a pretty profound misunderstanding of how that takes place it seems in the sea.

I read an interesting article in a recent Economist about the work of Dr. Jiao Nianzhi and his work to find out more about AAPB's (aerobic anoxygenic photoheterotrophic bacteria). Check out the Economist here if you want to read it yourself. Anyway, my one sentence summary for those not inclined to get a science brain cramp is this: there appears to be another planetary level layer at work in how carbon is removed from earth and this guy has found it and is investigating it.

Hmmm. Kind of makes you think doesn't it ? Global warming and the arguments it creates on all sides develop quite a lot of heat (that one is free for you). And yet there appear to be entire aspects of the system that we don't yet understand. How about we funnel our energies into figuring this thing out, then decide - with all the right information - what needs to be done.

Thank you Dr. Nianzhi as sometimes we need to be reminded that we should always ask what it is that we don't know before jumping to conclusions.

Stretching

Sit back and relax and before we get started, we’re going to stretch a little. Your brain that is, not your body.

Think of the most incredible thing in your life that should be very unbelievable, but that you know to be true. Now, think about why you have been willing to overcome it’s “unbelievable-ness” – even if that is very personal – again I’m speaking about something just in your life, that perhaps you have only in your heart. (there’s no need to share it with anyone)

Got it ?

Now, with that reason that you overcame incredulity in your own head, imagine trying to explain it to another person – one not connected with the details, so that to them, it would also seem unbelievable. Construct a sentence in your own head as to how you might convince them to open their minds and embrace the possibility of this thing, this idea you’ve shared. What would you say to have someone open their mind to your idea ?

Are you done..? Take a moment if you're not.

Great. Now repeat that sentence to yourself, for yourself – the one you’ve just constructed, and ask yourself to try to apply it to what you see around you, what you hear and how you’ve elected to experience the people, places and time you are in.

What I’m hoping you’ve just done is grant yourself a moment where your own perspective changes about what’s around you, and how you exist. Problems that seem immovable now seem solvable with your magic wand of new perspective. Opportunities that you may have felt were outside your grasp may now seem like they may be within reach after-all. And other’s opinions that you have felt strongly about may merit a second look.

We didn’t do anything magic here, we simply elected to move away from our comfort zone a little and engage a muscle you already had – the ability to see things from another angle.

I don’t know about you, but I find that I often forget to use this muscle frequently enough, and as a result it can get weaker. Whenever I do re-engage it, it’s like listening to a favorite song from long ago – it just feels good.

In hindsight, that was easy wasn’t it - I bet you didn’t even break a sweat.

Fun with Numbers

28 03 7117 1.5 01 30

Go on then – what do these numbers bring to mind ?

28 - This is the smallest seat pitch on a commercial airplane operating today. It’s a measurement in inches of Spirit Airlines' economy seat. Great for kids. Not so much for other humans.

03 - This is the global ranking of Beijing’s Capital Airport in passenger numbers. Perhaps not surprising for China that they have world’s 3^rd busiest airport, it’s now processing more people than Tokyo’s Narita which placed in 5^th.

7117 – This is the astounding number of rooms in the Venetian/Palazzo Complex in Las Vegas. You’d think some of them must be on sale at the world’s largest hotel.

1.5 - This number comes to us from the great state of Kansas and speaks to Kansas City airport’s proximity to downtown. You can almost walk from plane to meeting.

01 - This is Los Angeles rating for most expensive taxi fares in the US. It’s a good thing LA is nicely compact and you can walk it all without need for a car.

30 - This is the amount of time in hours I’ve been travelling so far today (thanks Int’l date line) and accounts for punchy postings like this one.

Internet Access and the Correlation to Economics & Creativity

I've just spent a week in Australia & New Zealand. Wonderful places full of incredible sights, boisterous, life-loving people and some of the smartest folks I know. They've successfully blended a life -work balance in a way few others on earth have.

I did notice a disturbing trend however while there however and it speaks to how easily we communicate with each each and collaborate towards a better end result. [I should say in an effort to create full-disclosure here that I am very pro-collaboration].

Getting internet access anywhere in these countries is hard. While there are many access points they're all fenced off. Whereas publicly available internet access is a commitment many progressive urban centers are moving towards, that's not down under. Sunnyvale, California and the City of London in the UK are tow places that today offer complimentary public WiFi, but finding even cheap access to the net is very hard to come by in the primary cities of Australia and New Zealand.

What does it mean ?

It means the economics of access are placed before the benefits of widespread net adoption. This is short-sighted and in these two cases quite concerning you see, as both countries are knowledge economies. They don't have endless natural resources that can be dug from the ground. They are net importers of many basic goods, and their wealth to date has allowed that to happen. With the onset of cheaper offshore manufacturing on their Asian doorstep however, they've transitioned to services-based wealth generation. And they're strangling collaboration and the very life-blood of connectivity. While there are a few places where you can buy & surf (not that surf, matey), these also are the exception rather than the rule.

So my advice to all the world leaders that read this is that you should understand what your countries' future depends upon to be economically healthy, and then put the appropriate tools in place to enable to happen. Anything less is shortsighted.

What does unoriginal mean ?

At what point does our conversation, our discussions or our efforts to be interesting become unoriginal ?

Talking about the same things repeatedly over time can be dull. That's understandable. Those around us grow fatigued when hearing the same repeated things. But where is the point of departure on this ? At what quantitative definitive point do we enter plagiarism?

I was having dinner with an old and dear friend I hadn't seen in while, and I decided to talk a little about some theories of time I am exploring. I know, old news to regular readers. {Btw- enjoy that small time joke on me}. As I broached the subject my internal voice that I am sure we all enjoy questioned the idea of speaking of something already laid out for all to see. I was intellectually aware I had crossed some threshold - invisible as it may be. Nonetheless I carried on and was later caught out on the matter. On one hand its absolutely recycling and on the other experts talk endlessly about the same topic not because they are monotonous, but rather because they continue to explore the boundaries of the subject. (I am not claiming to be an expert here).

So is full disclosure necessary ? Perhaps, but that also makes one come off as a poncy twit. "On my blog the other day I wrote about...". You don't want to be that person.

So the answer is "I don't know" but as usual dear audience (consisting of my
Mother only, probably) I offer up some brain-meat for you to chew on. What do you think - can we reference ourselves without citing it?

Oh- and be sure to mention that you read it here first Mom.

I Flew 12,000 km Backwards

... and boy are my arms tired as the very old joke goes.

The miracle of how small our world has become is considered so everyday that it passes without comment most of the time. Think back to 40 years ago and even this trip I've just completed was pretty extraordinary. 80 years ago it would have had to be done by ship and before that it was often a simple one way life transformation as the distances were on the same parallel as we view going to Mars these days. (6months)

Now let's look forward and imagine the same circumstances. By 2050 will we consider an orbital excursion regular and bemoan the 2-3 days it might take to get to a Martian vacation. .? We have dismissed jetlag - it's not serious just something you work through. Will stasis-lag be the same..? Einstein's physics teaches us that we will age at different rates as we approach the speed of light but what if my spouse also went into stasis or traveled as fast and far at the same time. Would it matter 'when' we lived as long as we were together ? Is this a short-cut to time travel of a sort?

I will predict that only our core values will survive intact in the coming years. Almost everything around us will be modified from how we see things now. I'm not talking flying cars here, I'm trying to imagine how the need and desire to travel and explore will evolve with technology knowing that the 'baseline of the want' will remain in place. Might it be possible for very realistic virtualization of a place to satisfy that need..? I bet it would, cutting deeply into leisure travel as we know it. That's a simple example of how satisfying the core need will allow us to radically change how we do things.

What can you imagine and the tricky part- how do we start to bring it to life. See what 12,000 km backwards does to you ?