America Deserves Trump

Probably not a popular sentiment, at least not if you read the east coast papers - Wall Street Journal or New York Times, or watch any of a raft of liberal media options.  All these outlets have something in common though - but let me come back to this, as I think there's a more fundamental point here.

Do you recall a few years ago, when we saw the rallies and camps set up around Wall Street and in other US cities protesting the 1% ?  Really they were angered that the US had allowed itself to become an elitist society where the rich got richer and the poor got dumped on.  The movement seemed to have a little momentum, and then due to lack of a defined leadership and stated mission, slowly faltered and went away.  They were protesting an increasing level of unfairness in their country if I might paraphrase the situation.

Over and over again we see this gap - between what I might call 'average America' and the elite on TV and the leadership they put in place in the country.  While jobs move elsewhere, and it's tougher than ever to make a living,  rich guys in Washington argue vehemently about the principles of providing cheap health insurance to those that can't afford it, and big companies make profit minded decisions, rather than community ones.  It's vogue as a business leader to move your headquarters or at least significant operations to Ireland or other havens for example (See: Apple, Google, Microsoft and Pfizer etc).  The net result of this is that the $600B+ in avoided US taxes gets shifted to be a burden elsewhere - onto guess who.  (The US current account deficit is running at $503B, coincidentally).  In times when spending demands are increasing, security concerns are increasing, and concurrently Wall Street needs more and more profits from listed companies, we see this gap widening and widening.  It's between those who have, and those who don't have.  Because a lack of government programs or funding doesn't hit the 1% that own and run the companies, that own the media and buy elections, it hits the bottom 50%.  And let's face it, the bottom 50% are generally powerless. They can't vote with their wallets, as all they can afford is Walmart.  They can however vote with their voices and ballots.

So what are we seeing ?  We're seeing a Presidential candidate that has tapped into that anger, that growing sense of unfairness that doesn't divide America along red and blue lines, but between the haves and the have-nots.  The media in the country seems aghast at the idea that this racist, blowhard of a chameleon seems unstoppable, and the Republican Party seems powerless to stop him too.  But they are missing the point... it's not Trump that is magnetic, he's simply the orange release valve on the pressure that's been building up ever since the banks took government handouts and gave themselves bonuses. He's the way to vent anger that factories and well paid jobs shifted to other countries, and employment now means service jobs at minimum wage.  He's the only one that while admittedly still a billionaire, seems to be understanding the blatant lack of a level playing field and saying it out loud.

Capitalism vs democracy has been brewing for a long time in the US, and it's not a popular argument to make.  Media - who themselves are part of the 1% - don't want to speak to it, as the very thought can be seen to undermine the American dream.  But this election cycle we're seeing a resurgent level of old-style democracy in the US, and they're mad, and they're out to right some wrongs.  Donald Trump with all his baggage, is their man.

Everest

It's magnetic to me.  Like K2 in Pakistan, Everest represents something unearthly and unreachable.

I've had the good fortune to be able to see and climb a few mountains with some of my very favourite people. Time 'at altitude' is special.  The air is clearer and so is your thinking.  Happily, my passion for nature's wonders is shared by someone close to me, and so together we're about to set off to trek to Everest and see the beauty of Nepal.

We aren't climbing the mountain as I don't think I could, and live to tell the tale anyway. Seeing it and being beside it will be enough.  The auro of Everest beckons.

Trump - Three Lessons

Where to start... a blowhard, racist, liar, populist, canny, brilliant strategist.  He's quite possibly going to win a very divided Republican party nomination for US President.

As an unprecedented self-promoter, Trump is a natural for the role of candidate.  It's a job designed precisely for someone just like him that has always relied so heavily on the value of his name as a brand.   Of course, at some point his candidacy ends, and as many have pointed out, that's when the problems will begin.  Trump's track record of actual success achieved  is quite hit and miss, and I don't need to detail that here.

What can we learn from Trump ?  Well, for a start it's that the election process in the US doesn't deliver the best person for the job.  Perhaps that's not news as such, but it's never been more clearly highlighted.  The election process thrives on the outlier candidate that is repeatedly headline worthy, and a consumate chameleon.  If exposure directly correlates to popularity (and admittedly there other variables in this equation), then Trump has nailed how to do it right.  By contrast his indirect competition looks two dimensional and flat.  Others have run dull, uninteresting campaigns (hello Hillary), thinking the reality TV star type of hype has to come to an end.  I think she's called that wrong by the way. America has been tricked that the meta-campaign they are in is entertainment - the American Idol version of politics where voting isn't really impactful and at some point Ryan Seacrest will emerge and re-assure us that the country remains in good hands.  Trump is the perfect teflon candidate, and there are sad (I foresee repeatable) implications for that in the years to come.

What else can we learn ..?  Trump's populist attraction is also a condemnation of the establishment.  If a core tenet of the Republican platform in general is smaller government, than whoever has run it the past few years has lost sight of this.  Trump espouses blowing out the establishment in Washington, and that resonates really well across the heartland where people don't trust or want big infrastructures. In this sense, the Republicans have shot themselves in the foot - a Tea Party proxy is just another form of big establishment, and that group when maturing from a movement into an organization somehow missed that nuance.   In this sense, Trump is just in the right place at the right time.

Lastly, Trump will divide the party, between those that still believe in the core principles of what being Republican means, and those with a position of power that they wish to protect (read Governors, sitting Congress and others that bought into Tea Party backing as a means to get elected). Probably the last thing Republicans wanted  - certainly incumbent Republicans - was a mandate on what being Republican means.  This will mirror disagreements around faith, where each Christian Church claims to be the true interpretation of Jesus.  Quite possibly, this is a terminal set of disagreements for the Party.  In that sense, Trump is a great divider, albeit an unintentional one and somebody that happens to have come along at an opportune time to make that happen.

Obviously many questions remain.  But we are witnessing something historic and despite the emotional effect Trump has on people - we shouldn't overlook that.