Ladies and Gentlemen, Start your Engines

In Formula One auto racing the cars start from a grid layout while standing still, and as you can imagine it gets REALLY LOUD just before the final light turns green and all the racers set off.  Mayhem ensues.  There are full throttle cars manoeuvring, side-swiping (and avoiding side-swiping) and as a result crashing, and careening off one another.  All are jockeying for position.  It's a mess, performed under the guise of sports entertainment.  But it isn't unexpected.  It's a mess as you have all the cars and teams executing starting strategies differently.  

An orchestrated mess. And it reminds me of the economy.

Each car/team represents a market segment (the auto industry, natural resources, big-tech, and more -  insert the industry you work in here) and more often that not, they want consumers to do different things and act in different ways.  As a result they manoeuvre, side-swipe and react to competitive and market pressures to avoid side-swiping their target markets and as a result crash, and careen off one another.  All are jockeying for position.  

Governments provide the rules and paths and as there is rarely a holistic master plan, the rules usually don't account for other industries' situations well - which is why we have industrial pollution loopholes, and radio spectrum overlap (turn off your cell phones now, we're coming in for landing) amongst two overly simple examples.  Special interest groups emerge to push for their their aims first above others - drilling in wildlife reserve, or funding for charter schools.  Too many vested interests to list.

This is life as we were used to it.  Chaotic, and hard to track.  We have economists who try to make sense of it all and even they don't all agree on everything going on. More debt, less debt, high interest rates to stimulate growth, or lower to curb inflationary worries.  Clear as mud, right ?

Now, let's revisit the Formula One starting grid metaphor for a moment.  The real difference between the economy normally and this car racing phenomena is that standing start, as the economy is ongoing, perpetual and probably tracks closer to the cycle of lap times metaphorically than a start/stop moment in time.  

But.  (Go back to the previous paragraph and note the word "normal").

Our economy has been largely standing still due to the virus.  We are asking ourselves questions like - 'will life ever go back to the way it was?' Vast numbers of unemployed people, massive government stimulus packages put us in a tenuous position.

Truth is that this all will require strong economic growth engines and re-energizing economies for governments to re-charge their coffers.  My crystal ball says we are about to enter an economic period that parallels a 1950's era western post-war rebuilding effort.  And the beneficiaries of this will be those well positioned to get off the starting line quickly.  Those organizations that have fast plans to take the lead, and go green, go sustainable, and capture new customers.  The survivors of the long winter in commercial real-estate, aviation and tourism industries are poised for fantastic growth.  So, sell that Zoom stock, because ladies and gentlemen, with multiple vaccines now beginning to be administered, it's time to start your engines.

 

A New Year Beckons

 A new year denotes change, and that is desperately needed.  Understatement accomplished, let's move on.

Beyond the news cycle and constant covid updates, we are back to the turning to the new year, and all the hope, idealism and more that this always means.  We will make resolutions with the best of intentions (or not) drunk and sober.  We will pledge to lose weight, fall in love, fall into shape, or fall into a new job, relationship, or situation. But the reality of this new year shouldn't be lost on us.  Too often life complicates our ability to achieve our desires - the job was hectic, the schedule allowed us no time, or we weren't financially in the right place to save for that big dream.  Of course this year is different, we will still be looking for new work, or stuck in our home offices with endless meetings.  

So how to make your new year resolutions come true ?  

Make a plan.  It's honest to goodness that easy.

The resolution is the "what", and while it's always fun to dream up new "whats", the truth is that was never going to be challenging bit.  The hard part is the "how".

I'm a personal fan of this structure - 'Objectives, Strategies and Actions'.  It allows for clarity of direction, a pathway that can be changed, and the opportunity to make some mistakes or mis-steps.  That last part of pretty important, as I need the ability to fall off the wagon without throwing away the whole thing.    Let's break this down:

Objective:  that's your resolution itself.  Lose 10 lbs, stop eating sugar (my own), meet new people, or learn latin...whatever you want to do.

Strategy:  This is the macro-plan.  Let me illustrate - I'll remove refined sugar from my daily intake by understanding what it's contained in, and find substitutes for those things.  I know directionally this will mean prepping more food I'll eat later, and avoiding some favorite temptations.   Your strategy might be to schedule time for the gym, or a nite out, or give/toss the bottles you have in the house to a friend.

Actions:  This is the day to day stuff we will each do that aligns to our strategy.  So when I go shopping for food (an action), I won't buy cookies or ice-cream. Another action would be to prep some snacks as I'm prone to grazing while I work.  Your actions would also support your strategy, as applicable.  What happens if I cave in and eat sugar-coated sugar treats one-day ?  Well the action that may have prevented it didn't work, and I understand that, and don't try that same action and expect a different result.  The plan remains intact, and I learn from this and move on.

That's my plan, and I've given some thought to the how.

What's yours?