Trump - Three Lessons

Where to start... a blowhard, racist, liar, populist, canny, brilliant strategist.  He's quite possibly going to win a very divided Republican party nomination for US President.

As an unprecedented self-promoter, Trump is a natural for the role of candidate.  It's a job designed precisely for someone just like him that has always relied so heavily on the value of his name as a brand.   Of course, at some point his candidacy ends, and as many have pointed out, that's when the problems will begin.  Trump's track record of actual success achieved  is quite hit and miss, and I don't need to detail that here.

What can we learn from Trump ?  Well, for a start it's that the election process in the US doesn't deliver the best person for the job.  Perhaps that's not news as such, but it's never been more clearly highlighted.  The election process thrives on the outlier candidate that is repeatedly headline worthy, and a consumate chameleon.  If exposure directly correlates to popularity (and admittedly there other variables in this equation), then Trump has nailed how to do it right.  By contrast his indirect competition looks two dimensional and flat.  Others have run dull, uninteresting campaigns (hello Hillary), thinking the reality TV star type of hype has to come to an end.  I think she's called that wrong by the way. America has been tricked that the meta-campaign they are in is entertainment - the American Idol version of politics where voting isn't really impactful and at some point Ryan Seacrest will emerge and re-assure us that the country remains in good hands.  Trump is the perfect teflon candidate, and there are sad (I foresee repeatable) implications for that in the years to come.

What else can we learn ..?  Trump's populist attraction is also a condemnation of the establishment.  If a core tenet of the Republican platform in general is smaller government, than whoever has run it the past few years has lost sight of this.  Trump espouses blowing out the establishment in Washington, and that resonates really well across the heartland where people don't trust or want big infrastructures. In this sense, the Republicans have shot themselves in the foot - a Tea Party proxy is just another form of big establishment, and that group when maturing from a movement into an organization somehow missed that nuance.   In this sense, Trump is just in the right place at the right time.

Lastly, Trump will divide the party, between those that still believe in the core principles of what being Republican means, and those with a position of power that they wish to protect (read Governors, sitting Congress and others that bought into Tea Party backing as a means to get elected). Probably the last thing Republicans wanted  - certainly incumbent Republicans - was a mandate on what being Republican means.  This will mirror disagreements around faith, where each Christian Church claims to be the true interpretation of Jesus.  Quite possibly, this is a terminal set of disagreements for the Party.  In that sense, Trump is a great divider, albeit an unintentional one and somebody that happens to have come along at an opportune time to make that happen.

Obviously many questions remain.  But we are witnessing something historic and despite the emotional effect Trump has on people - we shouldn't overlook that.

The Logical Progression of Drones

Aviation is a funny thing.  We see repeated patterns in history and markets.

In a commercial aviation sense, we've seen cities thrive and then be bypassed in aviation as technology has enabled faster aircraft with longer range.  It happened to Gander in Newfoundland, Canada, and Shannon, Ireland and Prestwick in Scotland.  It's happening currently to London, Paris, Frankfurt and Amsterdam as the Middle Eastern airlines deploy high capacity, long range aircraft to operate routes such as Dubai-Los Angeles.  And their day will come as well sooner than anticipated, as BA has a scheduled London-Sydney non-stop on the books and Singapore Airline re-inaugurates Singapore-York.  (And you thought a 5 hour flight was long in economy, try 22+ hours)   In the future, the concept of the airline hub being ideally placed won't be something we think of any longer - like long distance phone charges.

But drones - surely they are different ?  Not so fast.  We're in a quickly evolving world where small remotely controlled flying machines are being tasked with various activities.  They'll one day make our local airspace look as congested as our highways no doubt.  It's compounded of course with casual or sport flyers - now drones are equipped with WIFI and cameras and can go where people can't - subtly and stealthily.  The 'observation-only' is a specific use-case for drones, and as the 'only' role of drones, its coming to a fast end - much as passive flying machines with people in them came to an end in WW1.  100 years ago, these flying observation platforms quickly became viewed as ideal places from which to throw a small bomb, or take some shots.  In return, ground defense started to appear, to defend against such unwanted incursions.  I guarantee some kook right now is looking to equip drones with automated weaponry capable of shooting or exploding a target from a safe distance for the operator.  There's lots of military precedence, the only thing missing is the operator that elects to commit a crime this way.

The logical reaction is the authorities being allowed to shoot down drones, legally.  And that set of laws is being enacted in Salt Lake City as we speak.

As drones become more mainstream in their uses and applications, we're going to see more and more rules, infrastructure (FAA-Drones?) and legislation around them.  And when the first terror activity is perpetrated by drones, everything will change.

Gravitational Waves

An incredibly big, interesting discovery was announced this week that has some eye opening implications.  Gravitational waves were detected from the collision of two rather large black holes in space.

It begs lots of questions - How do see black holes as they're well...black holes that light doesn't escape from.  And why are we all excited about finding waves in space..?  

You actually "see" black holes by the mess they create - and measure this by the warping and waves created - both visible and up until now invisible. 

A black hole's "edge" or event horizon sucks in matter and energy.  Nothing is supposed to escape, or at least nothing we have been able to perceive until now. (Small side note that there have been observations of energy streams coming out of black holes recorded, these are not confirmed or explained or understood).  The tremendous force and effect on energy causes surrounding areas to shear.  A little like when the tub drains and makes that sucking noise.  We can observe in various wavelengths that shearing, and infer the presence of a black hole.  So that's how they are seen and tracked and that's how we know what was creating these waves in space.  Black holes were hypothesized by Einstein, and while not yet conclusively proven, thee is general consensus now that they do exist. 

The gravitational wave that should be there (think of a big shark rushing to the beach under the water and while invisible, you can tell from the disturbance in the water surface that something big is there) were also predicted by Einstein and reflect a natural phenomena (gravity) that isn't itself sucked into the black hole. It's an attribute of all matter (visible and dark) in space / time.

The fact that sensitive enough equipment can see these ripples now is stunning not because of the black holes themselves, but for what else we may be able to "see" via gravitational waves.   It's like figuring out how to hear for the first time and hearing a screaming baby.  A big obvious thing we could already perceive via radio telescopes and a visual effect referred to as gravitational lensing.

The value of being able to detect gravitational waves will be to 'hear' what we can't today - the crickets and mice - specifically to stitch together an audio (or in this case) a gravity landscape.  There is so much hypothesis about various "dark" elements that we could not perceive and gravitational waves open an almost literal new dimension for us.  

This is an exciting opening that much future science knowledge will flow through.

Cathedrals in the Sky

I spent some time in the mountains recently.  I'll let them speak for themselves.

2015 - My Year in Review

Well, it's that time again.  Time to assess the last twelve months, to cast judgement and make wry observations.

Overall, it was a sporty year personally.  I was fortunate to attend a few world class sports events in different parts of the world - the Monaco Grand Prix, the American League Baseball Championship Series and the Rugby World Cup.  I also ran my own first marathon (see, not just a spectator), climbed a mountain, and will have scaled the heights of the Peruvian Andes.  So - a sporty focus to my year absolutely, and for that I'm grateful - the opportunity and ability to do this aren't lost on me.

It was also a year of extensive travel, with some new countries for me (Honduras and Iceland) and many visits to old favourites.  I was able to spend time 1:1 with the people that mean the most to me in each of France, Japan and Iceland.

Based on all that, it was a very good year.  I also took on a new role at work myself, and saw each of my favourite people flourish and succeed in their work and lives. Proving themselves, applying themselves and being selected for new challenges and responsibilities.  There were moments that weren't all positive though too - people I love getting injured and the various ups and downs that are present at any time.   However electing to focus on the positive, here are my own top 12 personal moments of 2015 in no particular order..

• A memorable lunch in Saint-Paul in the Cote D'Azur at La Columbe D'or.  A stunning day with wonderful good friends, and my love, in perhaps the most fantastic restaurant ever. Lunch lasted hours and hours, the rose flowed and flowed and we were surrounded by fascinating locals and celebrities alike.  An absolute once in a lifetime assembly of good fortune made this a truly spectacular day.  The game of boules that followed was surely a lesson for all to see in people enjoying themselves.  What a day, what a trip.

• It's special when the time presents itself to do something that you've always wanted to do, and with someone you think so highly of.  That was August this year when my son and I were able to spend 10 days exploring Japan.  The fast trains, great food and fascinating culture that is modern Japan.  We climbed Mt. Fuji and were deeply moved in Hiroshima by the people, and its' history.  Perhaps the most stirring was the Fushimi-Ianri Shrine in Kyoto that we luckily encountered in the pouring rain, crowd-free and ethereally cloudy and silent save for the chanting in the mist.  An unforgettable time and a shared experience that lingers.

• In keeping with the theme of spending time exploring the world with my family, the year was capped off with three bucket list items - a first trip to Iceland, a first view of the Aurora Borealis and time spent with my daughter.  In a whirlwind weekend we spanned two tectonic plates, explored Rekyavik, were showered and surprised by geysers and had an (extremely cold) Aurora experience that blew us both away.  You can't predict these things and the lights were shooting across the sky, dancing with ferocity.  It was wondrous.  

• I had another chance in the year to travel with family, and this one happened by happenstance - making it all the better.  My brother and I both happened to be in London at the same time and had a great local dinner together near Maida Vale.  It was a fortuitous evening, that we both enjoyed for the spontaneity and company.  It's fair to say we don't have dinner together often, and although we live in the same city, thousands of miles from London, we're each involved with our own lives.  It was a great evening and one I will treasure.
• I did mention sports figured prominently, and my favourite 'event' of the year amongst a really good set of sports choices was the first game of the Rugby World Cup, this time in Wales with my
  
  friends Chris, Aine, Jonty and crew.  We saw our team lose, badly even, but the entire city was in rugby party mode, and so were we.  We went on to watch a few more games and travelled throughout many UK cities, but that first game was really good for the novelty, the Irish crowd and the friends. Our seats were stunning and the action was non-stop.  I think it's the first time I slept on a small couch (hanging over the sides) since university.  The streets of Cardiff looked like I felt the morning after too.

• Stepping away from the travel theme activities (you must think I spend my life on the road by now), one of the year's best other memories comes via my oldest friend, who I spent lots of time with, as we finished his basement bathroom (perhaps "finished" may be an optimistic way of looking at the end product), talked endlessly about his about -to-be born new baby boy, and laughed.  I was also so proud of him at his retirement event from the military after 20+ years of service, where he was given honour after honour. Don't let the plumber's crack fool you, this is a guy who has looked after the freedoms we take for granted. 

• Speaking of pride, my own year of physical exertion was capped by the completion of my first marathon.  I'd run some "half's" before, including earlier in the year, but had also silently thanked the running gods when I got to turn left instead of right in past races indicating the
  
  finish line of my half marathon versus the half-way mark of the full tamale.  But after an intense summer of training (some of which was admittedly spectacular, see below), it seemed do-able.  The actual event was...fun.  I do mean that too.  My daughter, and a friend named Kurt and I did it together and had a great time. We laughed, supported and cheered one another on.  It was hard, but an exceptional experience, and one I never thought I'd do.  It opened my (old) eyes to making something happen through will-power.  I don't think I've ever felt as powerful as the final kilometer where I found the energy to sprint to the end.  Now I want to do more.

Another of the year's highlights is associated in a sense to running, as the soundtrack to my year was the Foo Fighters. And it still is. I missed seeing them for reasons I don't really recall when they were in my hometown earlier in the year, and in one of the business trips I had, I was close enough to see them.  Off to the Ziggo Dome I went and they were everything I had hoped for.  It's a good thing they were loud, as I was screaming along to every song, and judging by those around me, so was everyone else.  Live music is always good, and if the songs carry an emotional element for you as these guys do for me, it turns into something the wrenches at your heart.

My remaining four best moments of the year all have something special about them as well. - but no pics.  Number nine is my wife and daughter and I doing a tourist weekend in Washington in February against the wishes of the weather gods.  We almost froze to death, but Washington has so much to offer, and is such a great place to visit.  After repeated attempts, the seminal desired photo was achieved - a folded $5 bill of the Lincoln Memorial in front of the Lincoln Memorial itself.  I recall at the time wondering if frost-bitten toes were worth it - but my family certainly is and toes grow back...right ?

I warmed up in April with a diving trip to Honduras where I did some advanced certification courses and dove to various wrecks around the island.  Diving trips are always good and all the more so when almost every dive features turtles and big moray eels.

Our whole family was together visiting my son in the Annapolis Valley in early summer and that was also fantastic.  We saw how put together he was, working away between university years -  and also how stunningly beautiful Nova Scotia can be.  You know you've raised your children well, when they research best restaurants to try, and best local cheese and ice-cream shops in the county to break up the drive back.

The last memory that pops out goes back to running, and some of the training I had to do.  As you can gather, I was on the road lots for work (and admittedly some fun too) and so I had to figure out how to train for the marathon while away.  My favourite training run took me around Heathrow Airport, and I did that one a couple times it was so good.  I'm an airplane geek and running next to active runways and hangers with all these incredible aircraft just sitting there is a great way to not think about running.  Needless to say I know my way around that airport, and the cut-ins from various local roads, and how to avoid the M5 and M4 junction roads too.  No doubt amidst today's heightened security, I've also been photographed and perhaps more as a 'suspicious character'.  But it was worth it, and I look forward to doing it again.

2015 has been a great year for me and my family.  It's not over yet - we have one more adventure to come still, but more than where you are, more than what you're doing, what tends to make anything stand out is the time together, at least for me.  I hope your year in review leads to as many happy memories of your own.

Paris & ISIS - A Theory

Like many of us, I'm feeling quite uncomfortable about the attacks in Paris. Senseless barbarity at it's worst.  I don't fear that attacks will be closer to home but I do think the reactions are, and that - I fear - was the point.

I've been trying to think like these guys for a couple days after Friday night's violence - what's the end game..?  What are they aiming for?  I think this is a useful approach because if we understand their strategy, we can defeat it.   I'm not condemning the knee-jerk retribution reaction the French are having as they are outraged and humiliated and suffering, but I do wonder if the actions they are now undertaking are the ones that will have the most impact.

In the West's various misdirected activities in Iraq, Afghanistan and so on (hindsight being 20/20) in the last 15 years, we have hopefully learned that without a clear and concise exit strategy (what happens after the soldiers leave), then the effort while positively motivated at the outset, ends in quagmire.  I think as an aside that's why we haven't seen ground troops to date in the Syrian civil war as the end game is anything but clear, even while the atrocities committed there scream for intervention.  Recall for a moment that ISIS came to light after the Syrian conflict began, and started to fight in the midst of that conflict.

If that principle applies to us - the need to have the exit strategy, then surely it equally applies to ISIS. Let's say they win the efforts on the ground, capture the territory they're aiming for and cease being a militant army and start to want actual recognition as a governing body.  There's countless precedents for this from the Taliban to the IRA.  What's their plan..?  Well, having provoked and pissed off the Russians and the West within the last month, it seems illogical that they are attempting to make their Syrian territory ground warfare efforts more effective to be able to govern one day.  The natural reaction is what we've seen- retribution and increased focus on eradicating them via smart bombs - cutting out the cancer.

As any doctor will attest however, cancer is a tricky disease, it can be removed and re-appear, it can go into remission and then re-emerge.  If you were ISIS strategic direction, what would your aim be in light of what's happening on the ground in Syria, and with the recent attacks in mind.

I have a theory that I want to share, that the evidence to date supports.  ISIS aims are to stir up global retribution against Islam itself, knowing they themselves are going to be short-lived and in the context of history, just a blip.  Around me outside of France, I'm seeing witness to senseless attacks on innocents that happen to be Muslim - personally and against Mosques.  This is being perpetrated by those that don't understand the difference between the militants and their associated religion and are angry at what they saw in Paris.  On a national scale, the effects of increased war efforts by Russia and France with air raids and cruise missiles will accelerate into a more coordinated activity by a 'coalition' of many countries no doubt aimed at destroying ISIS strongholds.  And while they'll kill some ISIS fighters, they're also aiming their bombs at innocent Syrians - Muslims that are being victimized on all fronts.   ISIS needs to spread more than anything, and the idea that the West is killing Muslims because Islam itself is being targeted is their end-game I think.  That's how the cancer spreads.

ISIS isn't afraid of the active war against them, they needed to provoke it and that was the rationale behind the very high profile activities of knocking passenger jets out of the sky and killing a couple hundred innocent Parisians.  If I'm right - by reacting strongly, motivated by revenge in the way we're seeing it playing out today, we are playing into their hands of creating martyrs for their greater cause. If that's the case, the answer could well be to surgically remove the issue, quietly and without fuss. We need to address what's been done, but let's do it in a manner that doesn't give birth to the next generation of anger that spawns into the next ISIS.  We aren't at war with Islam and we cannot let the insanely criminal activities of a few, convince us that we are.

The Soundtrack to Your Life

You know songs that get stuck in your head..?

I have those, only it's a whole album, its a whole band.  It's the music I've listened to all year, some movies I've greatly admired and how I've run these past months.  The songs that make me scream and cry and sing.

And I'm seeing this group tonight.

I don't think I could be more excited about a concert.  It's so much more than a concert to me.

I wish you the same intensity on whatever you care about.