Saturday, June 15, 2013

Childhood's End

I try to be realistic and relative with new ideas I see, hear or read about, and don’t use labels such as “mind-blowing”, “revolutionary” or associate ideas to Toffler’s “Future Shock“ too easily.  But I've come across one of those concepts, and I’m staggered by it.  The implications are life-altering on a species-level for humanity, and I’m stunned by it’s significance.

I recently wrote about the mountain of data we were on the verge of collecting, and ironically, I think I missed a rather key point.  The real-time reality capture we’re on verge of making happen is but one of the mega-data components we’re enabling today.  The other is the object data, connectivity, rules and implicit implications surrounding the internet of things.  For those uninitiated, the internet of things is the connected-ness of inanimate objects and networking them.  At a macro-level, imagine your refrigerator connected to the web and telling you to pick up some eggs on the way home from home via SMS when you’re low on them.  Clever, yes ? At a more detailed level, it’s the labelling of each individual egg with unique identifiers that exist from production through distribution and consumption and these guide the need to create it, how to care for it, the distribution and marketing of it, the pricing of it and finally its’ consumption and recycling.  A smart egg indeed.  Every single item, in every household and every business, everywhere, in real time all connected and interacting.  Starting to see the scale ?  Complement that with real time capture of every stage in every day of both human and automated process reality.

Like any system, efficiency is achieved through scale.  With a rudimentary backbone already in place to connect (the internet) early systems, the framework for this infrastructure exists today.  The check-out is connected to the warehouse now, so demand, shipping and re-supply are all automated already. Getting more granular is straightforward.

Go forward now. The implications for us are overwhelming.  For this to happen we will need to revolutionize how we look at a number of aspects of our lives as we know them.

·      *   We will require whole new identification systems as today’s are cursory and simplistic when the   interactive and pervasive nature of the future is considered. Bar codes, RFID and IPV6 don’t cut it.  Will we need to be tagged too ?
·      *  The economics of this world will need to change as production is empowered with smart supply and smart demand.  More pointedly, the economics will need to systemically embedded so that ‘things’ understand their intrinsic systemic value.  The “Blade Runner” future vision of being hammered 24/7 with advertising we’ve been weaned on misses the point that as we’re too feeble in our attention spans to manually manage ourselves in this world, and will have to hand over ‘economic rules’ to the system itself. Who defines these ?
·      *  The rules or law itself will need to morph from what’s happened, which typifies our current legal approach to the web, to being enforcement of design rules.  Over-production, or faulty production (Sorry we accidentally killed your husband, the factory had a glitch) will cease to be human-caused, and so our liability concepts will evolve to allow statistically acceptable levels of error.
·      *  We will live always-connected, a cog in the wheel in a system we don’t actually run any longer, but enabled.  ‘Opt-outs’ will be a lifestyle choice I might imagine until it’s clearly uneconomic for the system, so will be eliminated.
·     *   Power in the form of politics and nations will have to evolve as protection of systems rises in importance equal to people.
·      *  Power in the form of electrical generation will also develop, as today’s data storage and management already takes the energy of 30 nuclear plants. 

I'll go out on a limb here and suggest that by and large, we don’t see this coming. 

"Much like a body slowly infected with a virus, the invitation to this future won’t be announced and the milestones missed.  The move to this future ‘utopia’ will be as fundamental a change to our species as the evolution into nations from villages 2500-4000 years ago was.  That was the dawn of civilization, and we’re verging on the end of its childhood.

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