Which came first the Chicken or the Egg & More- Answered.

There's a question I have to say that I dislike - the chicken and egg one - I'm sure you've heard it.  While I'm at it, the statement about the glass being half empty or half full, I'm not fond of that one either.  Scientifically, neither of these hold any water- ok, that was a bad pun, but bear with me and I'll explain.

Let's deal with chickens first.

 "What came first, the chicken or the egg"  Seems harmless enough as a baseline for an analogy to describe an unclear situation.  However its illogical, and a poorly thought out comparison.  Chickens are hatched.  They hatch from eggs.  That, in itself is enough to describe how inane the saying is.  Take it to the next level - where did the first chicken come from, and the idea that it somehow spontaneously developed post birth into some different form is truly silly.  "Man evolves into chimp last Tuesday" kind of thing.  What happened scientifically was something we might describe today as: 50% chicken, 50% 'other' mated with something else that was 50% 'X' and 50% chicken.  The resulting litter of eggs had a number of variants, one of which was a chicken, and it was born from an egg.  Case closed.  Well, almost, as there would have had to have been two of these new creatures to bring about the next batch of eggs and new chickens.  The Adam and Eve of chickens as it were.

Just as an aside, something else new was also probably created in that first chicken litter - something that wasn't the '50% chicken' from either of the parents.  We never hear about that one, do we ?

So, with this air-tight quasi-science now laid out, I hope to never again hear the "what came first, the chicken or the egg?" question.  At the very least, a more appropriate question is "What were the parents of the first chicken ?"  That at least will have you scratching you head a little.

Ok - now - glasses with some water in them, being described as analogies for positive or negative thinkers.  Clearly this one has some deeper thinking behind it, but I'd suggest that even a thirsty pessimist might be tempted to see the water positively.  Moving on and invoking some science once more...

The water in any container will indeed be visible at some height/layer/volume.  The latter word is the critical one, as the volume the water occupies is subject to a few factors - temperature being a large influence.  Roughly speaking all liquids (and water is an exception to the general rule as I'll explain) expand when heated and contracts when cooled.  Water has an exception to this general rule between 0 and 4 degrees celsius.  Water is at it's most contracted at 4 degrees, and as it cools farther towards 0 degrees where is freezes, it expands as the ice molecules create different (larger) bonds.  Thawing back towards 4 degrees, it appears to shrink, until past 4 degrees where it expands as any other liquid. This is kind of interesting in itself, and makes me ask why..

But, back to the question - "Is the glass half full, or half empty?" Well, it depends, as it probably is not static - cold water from the tap or fridge when placed at the half-way point in a container is actually expanding to be more than half full as it warms up.  Likewise a container of hot water placed outside will shrink (also potentially due to evaporation, so the mean humidity level also comes into play). Hopefully it's clear now that the glass is neither half full or half empty, but at a transitionary state whereby a range of factors (and I didn't even mention air pressure) are affecting it.  Science prevails once more.

As to one's perspective in seeing the negative or positive - I'd suggest a simple conversation will illuminate that individual's viewpoint, and no water needs to get involved to determine this.

I'd be happy to take on other simple sayings if you like, right now however I'm thirsty and hungry for  - well, you know.

The Superbowl - Bucking the Trend

The superbowl represented a huge validation of traditional media, and it bucked the trends all around us to move away from shared interests and common messaging.    All we hear these days in a media sense is more news about a fragmented audience, and the need to market to the individual.  The social media powerhouse emergence - got a spare $100B for your own? - is the cause or effect of all this depending on who you listen to.  Amazon and the long tail, iTunes and the evolution of Genius and Ping to find those who may share some interests - it's all fascinating, but it's all about the movement away from a common shared perspective that we have as a society.

That's what made the superbowl so stupefying in a media sense.  yes, we know the commercials are $3.5M for 30seconds, but that was before they knew what the audience would be.  The actual numbers behind this shared cultural experience are breathtaking.

• 111,300,000 viewers in the US - the most watched program of all time.  (Keep in mind that you can count on your hands the number of TV programs that have exceeded 100M in history)
• Canada had 8.1M viewers, and more than 18M watched some part of the game.

Despite all the tie-ins to new media during the ads that were seen, the very fact that more than 1 in 3 individuals in North America shared the same program this week should be cause for celebration for anyone vested in 'old' media.  It isn't dead, and remains a force to be reckoned with.

My Manifesto

Will triumphes over lazy, but lazy is a sly and devious foe.

A fresh new sparkling idea makes your day, week or month better.

Awareness unstimulated by concepts and thoughts outside your core area means awareness becomes dulled.

Recognize your own elation point and make plans to revisit it. With some frequency.

Human nature is naturally selfish enough that we don't ever need to supplement it with more.

Trying for the best outcome in whatever you do is rarely incorrect.

By default, understand there are things you don't understand.

Any stake in the ground, any manifesto, only reflects what you've learned so far.

The Change from Red v Blue

There's a change afoot in US politics...red v blue is starting to give way to a new division.  Rich v not.  The 1% vs the 99%.  This is quite something, nudging aside old biases in favour of new ones.

People vote with their wallets, and it's hard to listent to the old ways, when the 'Establishments' - red, bue or purple, are all wealthy 1% types.

Watch as the defense of wealth becomes a bi-partisan cause.

When does our Calendar end ?

I was thinking about the Mayans the other day.

2012 is supposed to be a big year for them, depending I imagine on how you elect to interpret their calendar.  It either signifies the end of the world, or the calendar simply stops.  A fairly important distinction one might imagine.

One the basis that I don't know if any Mayans are around any longer - I have certainly not met any, though have been to the land presently identified as Mayan a few times. Their recorded history seemed to hit a wall with the arrival and subsequent colonization by the Spanish a few hundred years ago, though like any ancient civilizations some small remnants remain, celebrating the dress, dance, culture and trying to keep their language alive.   I think it's probably fair to conclude that their civilization as such is but a memory - not unlike Rome, Egypt or Mesopotamia.  In all these ancient locations people still thrive and may identify their roots with the once-great powers that lived there - but these communities are not what they once were in any case.

Which brings me back to the Mayans and their calendar.  If I take a view that the calendar simply runs out in (our) 2012, did they know they wouldn't be around, and hence not need it any longer..?  Were they prescient after a 3000 year run, or did it hit a logical "revisit-it" time that they'd deal with when it arose.  If I look at our own culture, we've just changed from 2011 to 2012. It's not impossible to imagine a date 100, or even 1000 years in the future for us thanks to futurists and science fiction, but can we really consider the year 9912 - a time 7900 years ahead.  The corollary is 5888 BC, a time before we had records at all.  Then, the wheel had just been invented and animal husbandry was just beginning.  The current state of our species would not seem remotely familiar, and hence they couldn't and wouldn't have planned for us.

To assume that our straightforward calendar addition will cater for our own far future seems a little simplistic now doesn't it, and so I'd like to suggest we also make a review date in the future.  Let's call it 3012 and start to celebrate a count-down.  Not to the end of the world, but to a time when we will formally re-evaluate how we view time, and take into consideration another thousand years of humanity's inventiveness.

Happy -1000 everyone.

Christmas Dawn

The house was quiet and dark, the sun hadn't yet started to warm the eastern sky.  The lights had been switch on so the Christmas tree glowed, shimmering reflections off the gilded wrapping beneath, untouched and unexplored by little hands. 

The house sang with memories of earlier days, the whispering and creaking of young feet approaching the area tentatively, almost expecting to see the big elf himself, hoping not to, and wanting it at the same time. It would be four or five am, the children realizing even in their excitement that it was too early to ask to be up. So they were quiet, at least as quiet as thrilled could be. 

The house remembered. It smelled of Christmas with pine and sweets and reflections of the neighbour's coloured lights peeked in the windows.  It was warm and safe and full of love and good.  Mostly, it was good.  Pre-dawn Christmas morning was a special time even when the now-larger kids slept, as it knew that on this day, memories were etched and impressions that last a lifetime are forged.  The house embraced the moment and was magical in that darkness.  That pre-dawn time and place where all Christmas past lived to be visited once a year, awaiting this years merriment.

2011 - 2012 What did we Learn?

I don't know about you, but I love this time of the year for the lists, the looks back at the year that was, and the look forward and predictions made.  It's a crystal perspective ball on writers - and shows us what they really think about things - in selecting the seminal moments from the last 12 months, or the attempts to seem clairvoyant looking ahead.  With the small chance others also enjoy this, let me do it for you here.

I've put this together around a premise - one that we should all live with - what did we learn, and how does that affect our world going forward..?

1. We saw Social Media mature into mainstream platforms in 2011, from the role it played in the Arab Spring through to various Occupy movements, from Facebook's continued stellar level of growth through to Linked-in's IPO.  The thought that Social media is a fad like pet rocks, or that is restricted to Gen. Z is widely accepted as absurd now.  Seth Godin whom I greatly admire for his eloquence characterized that we shouldn't be surprised when we self-publish (our photos, blogs etc). Rather, a brief respite (that took the form of mass marketing) for a hundred years or so allowed us to forget our self-publishing nature.  2012 will see a higher proliferation of self publishing activity as we don't appear to have our fill of it yet.
2. There was lots of pure science activity, but little in the way of world-shaking results in 2011.  CERN is due to give us big news, as are the various Mars-bound probes. 2012 will be a year marked by news in pure science.
3. Obama will be re-elected in 2012.  While the national split will remain largely in place in the US, there are no huge challengers to him in the horizon, and the end of the war in Iraq, coupled with a re-emergence of the election-pulpit pounding rhetoric that helped him get elected initially will carry the day.  We learned this year that he seems shy of reaching towards the remarkable, and he has favoured the middle of the road so as not to rock approval ratings.  Once it's clear to him that November is the only approval rating that matters, he'll be re-born. Wait for it.
4. Canada's RIM will be purchased by Microsoft in 2012.  I don't have insider info, just a sad, sinking feeling that the one-time darling of the tech world has suffered enough to submit.
5. 2011 saw device convergence in the mobile telephony world. Bad news if you're a stand-alone vendor of digital cameras, GPS units or handheld gaming platforms.  This was largely stimulated by the nice folks at Apple who do have a crystal ball it seems based on their attempts-to-win record.  2012 will see that trend continue, but the base platform will change - it'll go to TV's.  You thought perhaps 3D/4D was enough ?  Wait til the nice Apple folks build in DVD players, DVR capabilities and make TV's without wifi anachronistic.  Who is in Apple's cross-hairs now ?  Sony.  For what it's worth, they're susceptible to the pending attack. 
6. Politically, 2011 was a shaky year - an 'anus terribulus' in the Queen's vernacular for much of the Arab world. Governments fell, instability reigned and the protestor was omni-present.  2012 will continue that trend.  We'll see Syria's current regime crumble and see some structural changes - preventative measures in the quasi-free states - Saudi, the UAE etc.  It may not be enough.
7. 2011 also saw the departure of Kim-Jong Il, our fearless leader (My favourite reference of the week is from the Economist - "Farewell earthlings!").  While there will undoubtedly be a settling in period for his 3rd born as heir apparent, North Koreans should expect some respite in famine terms as he attempts to buy some love from his subjects.  The kid went to school in Switzerland, so it won't have been lost on him how to be neutrally positive.
8. Mainstream entertainment will continue to thrill a smaller and smaller portion of the population at large, which goes to explain why reality TV shows will continue to be dominant.  This is the long tail's gift to the rest of us.
9. The Cubs won't win, neither will Arsenal, or the Leafs.  Some teams just can't get their heads out of their own ...well, you know.
10. Global Warming rounds out the top 10 - the veracity of it will continue to be debated while vast chunks of the Arctic and Antarctic seas break away and melt at ever-increasing rates.   The sunken frozen methane in the tundras of the northern hemisphere will start bubbling to the surface, and it will be clear in 2012 that whether or not we ratify Kyoto and do our part, this was never going to have been enough.   It's remarkable that dinosaurs with brains the size of walnuts will have outlasted us as the dominant species on the planet by hundreds of millions years.  

That's it.  What we saw in 2011, and what we should learn from it looking forward.  I do promise to revisit this in 12 months to see how I scored.

I hope you enjoyed this look into my crystal ball - happy new year.