2011 - 2012 What did we Learn?

I don't know about you, but I love this time of the year for the lists, the looks back at the year that was, and the look forward and predictions made.  It's a crystal perspective ball on writers - and shows us what they really think about things - in selecting the seminal moments from the last 12 months, or the attempts to seem clairvoyant looking ahead.  With the small chance others also enjoy this, let me do it for you here.

I've put this together around a premise - one that we should all live with - what did we learn, and how does that affect our world going forward..?

1. We saw Social Media mature into mainstream platforms in 2011, from the role it played in the Arab Spring through to various Occupy movements, from Facebook's continued stellar level of growth through to Linked-in's IPO.  The thought that Social media is a fad like pet rocks, or that is restricted to Gen. Z is widely accepted as absurd now.  Seth Godin whom I greatly admire for his eloquence characterized that we shouldn't be surprised when we self-publish (our photos, blogs etc). Rather, a brief respite (that took the form of mass marketing) for a hundred years or so allowed us to forget our self-publishing nature.  2012 will see a higher proliferation of self publishing activity as we don't appear to have our fill of it yet.
2. There was lots of pure science activity, but little in the way of world-shaking results in 2011.  CERN is due to give us big news, as are the various Mars-bound probes. 2012 will be a year marked by news in pure science.
3. Obama will be re-elected in 2012.  While the national split will remain largely in place in the US, there are no huge challengers to him in the horizon, and the end of the war in Iraq, coupled with a re-emergence of the election-pulpit pounding rhetoric that helped him get elected initially will carry the day.  We learned this year that he seems shy of reaching towards the remarkable, and he has favoured the middle of the road so as not to rock approval ratings.  Once it's clear to him that November is the only approval rating that matters, he'll be re-born. Wait for it.
4. Canada's RIM will be purchased by Microsoft in 2012.  I don't have insider info, just a sad, sinking feeling that the one-time darling of the tech world has suffered enough to submit.
5. 2011 saw device convergence in the mobile telephony world. Bad news if you're a stand-alone vendor of digital cameras, GPS units or handheld gaming platforms.  This was largely stimulated by the nice folks at Apple who do have a crystal ball it seems based on their attempts-to-win record.  2012 will see that trend continue, but the base platform will change - it'll go to TV's.  You thought perhaps 3D/4D was enough ?  Wait til the nice Apple folks build in DVD players, DVR capabilities and make TV's without wifi anachronistic.  Who is in Apple's cross-hairs now ?  Sony.  For what it's worth, they're susceptible to the pending attack. 
6. Politically, 2011 was a shaky year - an 'anus terribulus' in the Queen's vernacular for much of the Arab world. Governments fell, instability reigned and the protestor was omni-present.  2012 will continue that trend.  We'll see Syria's current regime crumble and see some structural changes - preventative measures in the quasi-free states - Saudi, the UAE etc.  It may not be enough.
7. 2011 also saw the departure of Kim-Jong Il, our fearless leader (My favourite reference of the week is from the Economist - "Farewell earthlings!").  While there will undoubtedly be a settling in period for his 3rd born as heir apparent, North Koreans should expect some respite in famine terms as he attempts to buy some love from his subjects.  The kid went to school in Switzerland, so it won't have been lost on him how to be neutrally positive.
8. Mainstream entertainment will continue to thrill a smaller and smaller portion of the population at large, which goes to explain why reality TV shows will continue to be dominant.  This is the long tail's gift to the rest of us.
9. The Cubs won't win, neither will Arsenal, or the Leafs.  Some teams just can't get their heads out of their own ...well, you know.
10. Global Warming rounds out the top 10 - the veracity of it will continue to be debated while vast chunks of the Arctic and Antarctic seas break away and melt at ever-increasing rates.   The sunken frozen methane in the tundras of the northern hemisphere will start bubbling to the surface, and it will be clear in 2012 that whether or not we ratify Kyoto and do our part, this was never going to have been enough.   It's remarkable that dinosaurs with brains the size of walnuts will have outlasted us as the dominant species on the planet by hundreds of millions years.  

That's it.  What we saw in 2011, and what we should learn from it looking forward.  I do promise to revisit this in 12 months to see how I scored.

I hope you enjoyed this look into my crystal ball - happy new year.