2013 - What Won't Come to Pass

I made some 2013 predictions and left out some things.  That was intentional and I wanted to explain these and my reasons why.  In short, the nature of predictions for the next year is that to make the list, I have to think that we'll see these things rise to prominence in some way, or become significant - more so or less so than the current year.  Here's what didn't make the list, and why.

Anti-predictions as it where..

• 3D Printing.  Cool idea, too expensive and requires a household trigger mechanism that isn't there yet.  It's a little like looking for the next killer app - there's no reasons we all need 3D printing yet.  We may in the mid-term future.  But just not yet.
• The Internet of Things.  Another great concept, another idea that doesn't take into account the replacement cycle of our existing things.  I've no objection that my toaster, or hot water heater, or  stapler is connected online and can offer status updates (please remember to buy more staples, I'm almost out), but if my existing stapler isn't broken then I'm not about to upgrade it with a connected version.  This trend will evolve over the next 10 years until it attains critical mass.  But the value of having an ability to interact with my coffee-maker remains pretty fuzzy for most, and  so it won't speed up until that point - critical mass.  
• Apple TV.  A huge failure looming on the horizon.  TV isn't a normal industry and Apple is about to learn that the hard way. 
• Big Data-Maintsream.  In short, the promise of big data is that we can mine it, and gather all kinds of useful nuggets that we can then use to predict and entice future behaviours.  Great innovation but premature, in the sense that those that have invested significantly already want to start monetizing it, and the systems and approaches are as yet immature.  And the use of these immature methods will make us all question what big data can really offer.  It needs patience - but we won't see that in 2013.

We won't see these things rise to prominence in 2013.

2013 Predictions - My Crystal Ball

My 2013 Predictions, or guesses, or hunches.  You get the idea.

1.  We will see the emergence of a clearer form of Chinese nationalism in the next year driven from new younger leadership that will replace focus on party and the historic manner loyalty has (quietly) played out with external patriotism - a strong China model that will show itself in their foreign policy.

2. The western world will continue to shuffle and hobble towards economic  recovery from recession, I sadly anticipate.  In 10 years we will all recognize 2013 as another year spent in recession.  But while it's going on, we'll talk about the slow recovery instead of admitting it's actually still a recession.

3.  There will be yet another large natural disaster that seems to clearly indicate a shift in weather patterns to anyone with their eyes open - another mega hurricane, or severe drought or perhaps significant flooding in places it shouldn't happen.  There will be yet more widespread debate about connections to root cause, and still more be widespread denial that our human activities are having an impact on these macro-planetary systems.  

4. RIM will be bought at a value many raise an eyebrow at, due to their patent library.  My money is still on another industry player - Microsoft, Samsung or Nokia.  It's possible an outside investor could try to take advantage of a low valuation after the market failure of the Blackberry 10 platform.  Cue the sad music.

5. We will see a royal baby girl born the UK. A true little princess. This will result in increased succession debates that will bore the rest of us to tears.  

6. There will be consolidation in the airline industry in North America as old names disappear, and in the auto industry too as emerging brands are snapped up for their developing country (BRIC) market shares.  The auto industry will start to understand that demand can't continue to grow from the poorer nations of the world, and they are actually in a marketshare race in an industry where scale does matter.

7. Cultural phenomenon such as PSY's Gangham Style will soar to global awareness heights like rockets, amazing us all with the attention they garner.  It will be a while still before this is accepted as a natural outcome of living in an uber-connected world.  We're surprised as we don't yet comprehend the extent of the change the information age is having on our experiences, and that awareness won't happen in 2013.

8. Greece's economy will finally stumble and fail and it will force Germany to declare whether they will actually parentally support the EU or not.  They will.  But they won't be happy about it.  The European debate will shift from "if" to "how long".

9. The sad evolution in outcomes of the Arab Spring will be more clear - power corrupts people.  The new governments in countries like Egypt and Libya will topple as the will of the people will find no worthy champions. Today's freedom fighter is tomorrow's despot. Ongoing civil unrest will be the new order of the day as these citizens will experience continued frustration that will drive them to the streets.

10. The Occupy movement will reappear. People will seem surprised by this.  But they shouldn't be.  It's a bi-product of economic inequality, a symptom of unease and a request that we all acknowledge some basic unfairness that exists in our society.  The challenge they face (which even they may not see) will be to garner enough support to build momentum towards change.   I don't think they'll overcome that in 2013.

Guns - Some truths

I live in Canada, and today's sickening events in Newton CT give us all pause to consider how we act towards one another.  There is understandably much discussion about gun control today, and no doubt it will grow hotter in the coming weeks.

The murder of children is perhaps the most heinous of human acts imaginable and while the 'tool' used was a gun, it's important to keep in mind that an individual did this.  Nonetheless the gun debate will rage on.  It's peppered with half-truths and exaggerations and I wanted to offer some data and suggest you form your own opinions.

I offer civilian gun data here for Canada and the US.  The countries compare nicely in many cultural ways, so the propensity to act have the same basic drivers you might imagine.

Canada - approx 32M population

•  9,950,000 guns owned in Canada, of which 1.1M are handguns according to 2007 data
•  That's 23.8 guns per 100 people, which ranks Canada at #12 worldwide
•  There were 594 homicides in 2007, of which 188 were gun related - 31.6%

The United States - Approx 302M population

•   270,000,000 guns owned in the US in 2007
•  That's 88.8 guns per 100 people, which places the US at #1 in the world.
•  There were 16,129 homicides in the US in 2007, of which 10,129 were gun related - 59.8%

What can we deduce ?

1. Gun ownership is approximately 3x as popular in the US, accounting for population
2. Homicides are also 3x more likely in the US - from all sources
3. Gun related homicides are 2x more likely in the US
4. With the higher percentage of homicides, and greater probability of it being gun related, you are 6x more likely to experience a gun related homicide in the US v Canada

The above aren't opinion.  They are statistics, and the conclusions drawn from these are fact.

What causes this 6X difference ?  In culturally comparable countries, is it the right to own guns (bear arms) or perhaps the greater access to tool when murderous impulse strikes..?  I don't know, but it does seems that a premeditated act as we saw today wasn't an act of passion, rather it had clear intent.  The role guns play in these two societies isn't a black and white issue, and won't survive attempts at a black and white solution.  

We cannot get lost in a gun control debate when looking to tackle the core issues here.  What happened is unforgivable and while the gun played a role we shouldn't overlook that there are more factors to be considered. At some point before 9:30am this morning, this sick person made what they thought was an acceptable plan for their day, empowered with their firearm.  And that is something we should really examine.

What Happens When We're Resistant to Change?

I'm not a 'change' poster child, but I'll admit a certain comfort with mixing things up.  That's not for everyone though.  I got a taste for that this week - a great confirmation that we're not all the same - and we all need that reminder at times.  Some of us resist change at all costs.  That's not bad, but it does force a different approach. And that thankfully makes you think. (Thinking is good)

The nature of what I do needs the audience to resist at times so that I remain on top of my game, staying sharp, focussed and listening for cues as to how to connect and do better.  

So, lesson learned.  And by the way - thank you.

Brazil-redux

Just back from Brazil, the second time in the last six weeks.  Also Sao Paulo, and the same area in the city.  A real second chance.

I say that as I wasn't flattering to Brazil a month ago when I wrote about it.  I still think that's fine for what it's worth - sometimes we like experiences, and other times they don't impress.  That's life.

I was involved with the same client, but the difference this time was familiarity.  It does make a difference in how we (I) approach things I believe.   This time, I flew away from Brazil with a warmer feeling for the place, impressed still with the buzz the city has in pure people terms.  The city sprawls like liquid poured on a floor, and there's activity in every corner.  My own Portuguese was a tad better too, which undoubtedly helps.

Sao Paulo is different than many cities, as it has (to my eye anyway) few distinguishing physical landmarks. More city just keeps appearing around every corner, and over every hill.  It's not a walking city, and while there is a city-center I'd suggest it isn't a CBD, rather that's spread in different areas.  The picture above is near Morumbi, where the international corporate offices have congregated.

These days there are concerns about Brazil's government, and the stalling economy - how can any country that's grown like that stop growing we ask incredulously, ignoring economic history that seems to play the same cycle out in different places.  I'd offer that the people are as industrious, smart and working as hard as any other place.  They believe in the potential of Brazil and all of Latin America, and they assume visionary leadership of LATAM by the way.  Having visited twice, I'm also starting to believe as the energy of Brazil  is a little contagious.

2012 Predictions - And the winner is.....

A year ago, I offered some predictions on some events, trends and other things I selected at random, and I promised to revisit these to offer how clear my crystal ball was.  Well, the answers are in, and I passed.  Just.

In revisiting this post today, it's interesting to read where my own head was at, and what must have been the bubbling, pertinent issues at that time.  Twelve months later some things have changed, but clearly some haven't.

Here's how I did:

1. (Wrong). I suggested more and more self publishing would be evident.  While the trend is still out there, it hasn't gone mainstream yet.  It may still - but I think we'd "need an app for that" as it's too hard for the average person to get their head around in terms of what's involved.

2. (Correct). I suggested we'd hear big news form CERN and Mars.  And we did in both cases.  The Higgs Bosum was confirmed from CERN, and this "God Particle's" confirmation was validation of the smart work being done under Switzerland.  Likewise NASA successfully put a VW sized rover on Mars named Curiosity, confirming for us that there's rocks on the surface.  No water or Martians found yet.  The key learning here ?  Next time make separate predictions to get 2/2 instead of 1/1.

3. (Correct) Obama got re-elected. Although I'd suggest with the benefit of hindsight, the other guy actually lost, moreso than Obama won.  Full credit to his team though for clever play of the electoral college votes.

4. (Wrong) RIM survives independently, and will shortly be unveiling the BB10 for us all that still use their devices, which appears to be Joe in South Dakota and a bunch of Indonesians.  I have to say this one will make it onto the 2013 prediction list too.

5. (Wrong)  TV didn't get re-invented by Apple, they appear to have decided to play with Samsung in court all year instead.  Sony is shakier than ever however and we may see it crumble sooner than expected.

6. (Wrong)  Turmoil did continue throughout the year, but sadly the regime in Syria remains as the rest of the world appears unwilling to help those people out.  Here's what we should do instead  - let's assemble a strongly worded rebuke to the King, highlighting our displeasure. That's got to stop the slaughter of his citizenry, right ?

7. (Wrong & Correct)  While Kim Jong-un hasn't blown the place up yet, he does appear to be consolidating power inside his country and there's breaking news of a possible missile test before the end of the year.  I'm giving this prediction a pass, as while it's been quiet for this "Sexiest man alive", I think it wasn't overtly intended as that.

8.  (Correct) Indeed reality TV continues to bring us to new heights and depths. Honey Boo Boo - need I say more ?

9. (Correct)  In what was perhaps the 'gimme' on this list, the Cubs, Leafs and so on didn't win.  The odds were heavily in my favour on that one admittedly.

10. (Correct) Global Warming - is it real..?  Just today there are articles about this in Russia Today.  Many claims for and against Global Warming were made in relation to November's Hurricane Sandy, with no clear answers.  Two days ago, the National Sea & Ice Data Center published this though: November average sea ice extent was 9.93 million square kilometers (3.83 million square miles). This is 1.38 million square kilometers (533,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average for the month and is the third lowest November extent in the satellite record.  Seems debatable, doesn't it ?

So, a 5 score out of 9 with one abstention.  Not great.  I think I'll be shining my crystal ball a little for next week's 2013 predictions.

Do What I Say, Not What I Do

Many of us are wonderful at making pronouncements using our experience and wisdom at highlighting to others what they might think or do.  It's a gift I think (Says someone who does this frequently, and even gets paid at times for it).  Of course if it's unsolicited or unpopular, then whoever is receiving it simply views the 'advice' as intrusive - but that's a different blog post for another day.  When an individual you know or know-of is respected in their field, then the idea that we'll listen to them is quite natural - we want to hear what they have to say, and learn something for ourselves.  If a person is perceived as generally wise (the highest compliment?), then we seek out their guidance on any and all matters.  As children we're trained to do this with our parents, until that magic day in our 20's when we have the dawning realization that our folks are actually pretty clever people and are worth listening to, and not just because we have to.  We buy self-help books, and in our moden world, 'follow' thought leaders in social media. We all do this.

There's generally an under-acknowledged double-edge to this behaviour however.  Just as we perceive much of what is communicated through body language in addition to what's actually said aloud, we watch those who offer sage words.  Do they 'walk-the-talk', and take their own advice..?  Or are they offering a double-standard to us in terms of what's said versus what they actually do.

This came home to roost twice in the last few weeks for me.  The most recent episode that I saw was the expression of some pretty strong emotional beliefs - changing the world kind of stuff, and then a clear reversal of those same stated beliefs in the desired follow-up actions.  There were other options in this situation - I'd put forth there are always other options.  I walked away from the event with a very watered-down opinion of what was said which I'm 100% certain wasn't the intent or objective.

The second situation was one where I let myself down.  I was asked for some advice and handed out what I believed to be the best course of action, the smartest thing to do.  I found myself in need of that very same advice not a day later, and I personally elected to do almost the opposite of what I'd advised another on. I was painfully aware of the hypocrisy I was involved in, and yet I did it anyway.  Shamefully, I'm hoping my actions weren't noted by the one I gave the advice to, as I don't wish to have the follow-up conversation.  But in my head I've already had it, and it's not pleasant.

When we hear others, or ourselves, preach a certain pathway as the optimal one to take we should be prepared to take it ourselves.  Otherwise we don't really believe in it I don't think.  And while we can say things we don't believe in - that's acting.  I'll humbly suggest we're not approached by others for our acting skills, and to offer that is really a little false to all involved.  So the next time you are seeking wisdom from another be sure to ask - "Is that what you'd do too?"  And then watch.