I made some 2013 predictions and left out some things. That was intentional and I wanted to explain these and my reasons why. In short, the nature of predictions for the next year is that to make the list, I have to think that we'll see these things rise to prominence in some way, or become significant - more so or less so than the current year. Here's what didn't make the list, and why.
Anti-predictions as it where..
- 3D Printing. Cool idea, too expensive and requires a household trigger mechanism that isn't there yet. It's a little like looking for the next killer app - there's no reasons we all need 3D printing yet. We may in the mid-term future. But just not yet.
- The Internet of Things. Another great concept, another idea that doesn't take into account the replacement cycle of our existing things. I've no objection that my toaster, or hot water heater, or stapler is connected online and can offer status updates (please remember to buy more staples, I'm almost out), but if my existing stapler isn't broken then I'm not about to upgrade it with a connected version. This trend will evolve over the next 10 years until it attains critical mass. But the value of having an ability to interact with my coffee-maker remains pretty fuzzy for most, and so it won't speed up until that point - critical mass.
- Apple TV. A huge failure looming on the horizon. TV isn't a normal industry and Apple is about to learn that the hard way.
- Big Data-Maintsream. In short, the promise of big data is that we can mine it, and gather all kinds of useful nuggets that we can then use to predict and entice future behaviours. Great innovation but premature, in the sense that those that have invested significantly already want to start monetizing it, and the systems and approaches are as yet immature. And the use of these immature methods will make us all question what big data can really offer. It needs patience - but we won't see that in 2013.
We won't see these things rise to prominence in 2013.
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