2013 - What Won't Come to Pass

I made some 2013 predictions and left out some things.  That was intentional and I wanted to explain these and my reasons why.  In short, the nature of predictions for the next year is that to make the list, I have to think that we'll see these things rise to prominence in some way, or become significant - more so or less so than the current year.  Here's what didn't make the list, and why.

Anti-predictions as it where..

• 3D Printing.  Cool idea, too expensive and requires a household trigger mechanism that isn't there yet.  It's a little like looking for the next killer app - there's no reasons we all need 3D printing yet.  We may in the mid-term future.  But just not yet.
• The Internet of Things.  Another great concept, another idea that doesn't take into account the replacement cycle of our existing things.  I've no objection that my toaster, or hot water heater, or  stapler is connected online and can offer status updates (please remember to buy more staples, I'm almost out), but if my existing stapler isn't broken then I'm not about to upgrade it with a connected version.  This trend will evolve over the next 10 years until it attains critical mass.  But the value of having an ability to interact with my coffee-maker remains pretty fuzzy for most, and  so it won't speed up until that point - critical mass.  
• Apple TV.  A huge failure looming on the horizon.  TV isn't a normal industry and Apple is about to learn that the hard way. 
• Big Data-Maintsream.  In short, the promise of big data is that we can mine it, and gather all kinds of useful nuggets that we can then use to predict and entice future behaviours.  Great innovation but premature, in the sense that those that have invested significantly already want to start monetizing it, and the systems and approaches are as yet immature.  And the use of these immature methods will make us all question what big data can really offer.  It needs patience - but we won't see that in 2013.

We won't see these things rise to prominence in 2013.

2013 Predictions - My Crystal Ball

My 2013 Predictions, or guesses, or hunches.  You get the idea.

1.  We will see the emergence of a clearer form of Chinese nationalism in the next year driven from new younger leadership that will replace focus on party and the historic manner loyalty has (quietly) played out with external patriotism - a strong China model that will show itself in their foreign policy.

2. The western world will continue to shuffle and hobble towards economic  recovery from recession, I sadly anticipate.  In 10 years we will all recognize 2013 as another year spent in recession.  But while it's going on, we'll talk about the slow recovery instead of admitting it's actually still a recession.

3.  There will be yet another large natural disaster that seems to clearly indicate a shift in weather patterns to anyone with their eyes open - another mega hurricane, or severe drought or perhaps significant flooding in places it shouldn't happen.  There will be yet more widespread debate about connections to root cause, and still more be widespread denial that our human activities are having an impact on these macro-planetary systems.  

4. RIM will be bought at a value many raise an eyebrow at, due to their patent library.  My money is still on another industry player - Microsoft, Samsung or Nokia.  It's possible an outside investor could try to take advantage of a low valuation after the market failure of the Blackberry 10 platform.  Cue the sad music.

5. We will see a royal baby girl born the UK. A true little princess. This will result in increased succession debates that will bore the rest of us to tears.  

6. There will be consolidation in the airline industry in North America as old names disappear, and in the auto industry too as emerging brands are snapped up for their developing country (BRIC) market shares.  The auto industry will start to understand that demand can't continue to grow from the poorer nations of the world, and they are actually in a marketshare race in an industry where scale does matter.

7. Cultural phenomenon such as PSY's Gangham Style will soar to global awareness heights like rockets, amazing us all with the attention they garner.  It will be a while still before this is accepted as a natural outcome of living in an uber-connected world.  We're surprised as we don't yet comprehend the extent of the change the information age is having on our experiences, and that awareness won't happen in 2013.

8. Greece's economy will finally stumble and fail and it will force Germany to declare whether they will actually parentally support the EU or not.  They will.  But they won't be happy about it.  The European debate will shift from "if" to "how long".

9. The sad evolution in outcomes of the Arab Spring will be more clear - power corrupts people.  The new governments in countries like Egypt and Libya will topple as the will of the people will find no worthy champions. Today's freedom fighter is tomorrow's despot. Ongoing civil unrest will be the new order of the day as these citizens will experience continued frustration that will drive them to the streets.

10. The Occupy movement will reappear. People will seem surprised by this.  But they shouldn't be.  It's a bi-product of economic inequality, a symptom of unease and a request that we all acknowledge some basic unfairness that exists in our society.  The challenge they face (which even they may not see) will be to garner enough support to build momentum towards change.   I don't think they'll overcome that in 2013.

Guns - Some truths

I live in Canada, and today's sickening events in Newton CT give us all pause to consider how we act towards one another.  There is understandably much discussion about gun control today, and no doubt it will grow hotter in the coming weeks.

The murder of children is perhaps the most heinous of human acts imaginable and while the 'tool' used was a gun, it's important to keep in mind that an individual did this.  Nonetheless the gun debate will rage on.  It's peppered with half-truths and exaggerations and I wanted to offer some data and suggest you form your own opinions.

I offer civilian gun data here for Canada and the US.  The countries compare nicely in many cultural ways, so the propensity to act have the same basic drivers you might imagine.

Canada - approx 32M population

•  9,950,000 guns owned in Canada, of which 1.1M are handguns according to 2007 data
•  That's 23.8 guns per 100 people, which ranks Canada at #12 worldwide
•  There were 594 homicides in 2007, of which 188 were gun related - 31.6%

The United States - Approx 302M population

•   270,000,000 guns owned in the US in 2007
•  That's 88.8 guns per 100 people, which places the US at #1 in the world.
•  There were 16,129 homicides in the US in 2007, of which 10,129 were gun related - 59.8%

What can we deduce ?

1. Gun ownership is approximately 3x as popular in the US, accounting for population
2. Homicides are also 3x more likely in the US - from all sources
3. Gun related homicides are 2x more likely in the US
4. With the higher percentage of homicides, and greater probability of it being gun related, you are 6x more likely to experience a gun related homicide in the US v Canada

The above aren't opinion.  They are statistics, and the conclusions drawn from these are fact.

What causes this 6X difference ?  In culturally comparable countries, is it the right to own guns (bear arms) or perhaps the greater access to tool when murderous impulse strikes..?  I don't know, but it does seems that a premeditated act as we saw today wasn't an act of passion, rather it had clear intent.  The role guns play in these two societies isn't a black and white issue, and won't survive attempts at a black and white solution.  

We cannot get lost in a gun control debate when looking to tackle the core issues here.  What happened is unforgivable and while the gun played a role we shouldn't overlook that there are more factors to be considered. At some point before 9:30am this morning, this sick person made what they thought was an acceptable plan for their day, empowered with their firearm.  And that is something we should really examine.

What Happens When We're Resistant to Change?

I'm not a 'change' poster child, but I'll admit a certain comfort with mixing things up.  That's not for everyone though.  I got a taste for that this week - a great confirmation that we're not all the same - and we all need that reminder at times.  Some of us resist change at all costs.  That's not bad, but it does force a different approach. And that thankfully makes you think. (Thinking is good)

The nature of what I do needs the audience to resist at times so that I remain on top of my game, staying sharp, focussed and listening for cues as to how to connect and do better.  

So, lesson learned.  And by the way - thank you.

Brazil-redux

Just back from Brazil, the second time in the last six weeks.  Also Sao Paulo, and the same area in the city.  A real second chance.

I say that as I wasn't flattering to Brazil a month ago when I wrote about it.  I still think that's fine for what it's worth - sometimes we like experiences, and other times they don't impress.  That's life.

I was involved with the same client, but the difference this time was familiarity.  It does make a difference in how we (I) approach things I believe.   This time, I flew away from Brazil with a warmer feeling for the place, impressed still with the buzz the city has in pure people terms.  The city sprawls like liquid poured on a floor, and there's activity in every corner.  My own Portuguese was a tad better too, which undoubtedly helps.

Sao Paulo is different than many cities, as it has (to my eye anyway) few distinguishing physical landmarks. More city just keeps appearing around every corner, and over every hill.  It's not a walking city, and while there is a city-center I'd suggest it isn't a CBD, rather that's spread in different areas.  The picture above is near Morumbi, where the international corporate offices have congregated.

These days there are concerns about Brazil's government, and the stalling economy - how can any country that's grown like that stop growing we ask incredulously, ignoring economic history that seems to play the same cycle out in different places.  I'd offer that the people are as industrious, smart and working as hard as any other place.  They believe in the potential of Brazil and all of Latin America, and they assume visionary leadership of LATAM by the way.  Having visited twice, I'm also starting to believe as the energy of Brazil  is a little contagious.

2012 Predictions - And the winner is.....

A year ago, I offered some predictions on some events, trends and other things I selected at random, and I promised to revisit these to offer how clear my crystal ball was.  Well, the answers are in, and I passed.  Just.

In revisiting this post today, it's interesting to read where my own head was at, and what must have been the bubbling, pertinent issues at that time.  Twelve months later some things have changed, but clearly some haven't.

Here's how I did:

1. (Wrong). I suggested more and more self publishing would be evident.  While the trend is still out there, it hasn't gone mainstream yet.  It may still - but I think we'd "need an app for that" as it's too hard for the average person to get their head around in terms of what's involved.

2. (Correct). I suggested we'd hear big news form CERN and Mars.  And we did in both cases.  The Higgs Bosum was confirmed from CERN, and this "God Particle's" confirmation was validation of the smart work being done under Switzerland.  Likewise NASA successfully put a VW sized rover on Mars named Curiosity, confirming for us that there's rocks on the surface.  No water or Martians found yet.  The key learning here ?  Next time make separate predictions to get 2/2 instead of 1/1.

3. (Correct) Obama got re-elected. Although I'd suggest with the benefit of hindsight, the other guy actually lost, moreso than Obama won.  Full credit to his team though for clever play of the electoral college votes.

4. (Wrong) RIM survives independently, and will shortly be unveiling the BB10 for us all that still use their devices, which appears to be Joe in South Dakota and a bunch of Indonesians.  I have to say this one will make it onto the 2013 prediction list too.

5. (Wrong)  TV didn't get re-invented by Apple, they appear to have decided to play with Samsung in court all year instead.  Sony is shakier than ever however and we may see it crumble sooner than expected.

6. (Wrong)  Turmoil did continue throughout the year, but sadly the regime in Syria remains as the rest of the world appears unwilling to help those people out.  Here's what we should do instead  - let's assemble a strongly worded rebuke to the King, highlighting our displeasure. That's got to stop the slaughter of his citizenry, right ?

7. (Wrong & Correct)  While Kim Jong-un hasn't blown the place up yet, he does appear to be consolidating power inside his country and there's breaking news of a possible missile test before the end of the year.  I'm giving this prediction a pass, as while it's been quiet for this "Sexiest man alive", I think it wasn't overtly intended as that.

8.  (Correct) Indeed reality TV continues to bring us to new heights and depths. Honey Boo Boo - need I say more ?

9. (Correct)  In what was perhaps the 'gimme' on this list, the Cubs, Leafs and so on didn't win.  The odds were heavily in my favour on that one admittedly.

10. (Correct) Global Warming - is it real..?  Just today there are articles about this in Russia Today.  Many claims for and against Global Warming were made in relation to November's Hurricane Sandy, with no clear answers.  Two days ago, the National Sea & Ice Data Center published this though: November average sea ice extent was 9.93 million square kilometers (3.83 million square miles). This is 1.38 million square kilometers (533,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average for the month and is the third lowest November extent in the satellite record.  Seems debatable, doesn't it ?

So, a 5 score out of 9 with one abstention.  Not great.  I think I'll be shining my crystal ball a little for next week's 2013 predictions.

Do What I Say, Not What I Do

Many of us are wonderful at making pronouncements using our experience and wisdom at highlighting to others what they might think or do.  It's a gift I think (Says someone who does this frequently, and even gets paid at times for it).  Of course if it's unsolicited or unpopular, then whoever is receiving it simply views the 'advice' as intrusive - but that's a different blog post for another day.  When an individual you know or know-of is respected in their field, then the idea that we'll listen to them is quite natural - we want to hear what they have to say, and learn something for ourselves.  If a person is perceived as generally wise (the highest compliment?), then we seek out their guidance on any and all matters.  As children we're trained to do this with our parents, until that magic day in our 20's when we have the dawning realization that our folks are actually pretty clever people and are worth listening to, and not just because we have to.  We buy self-help books, and in our moden world, 'follow' thought leaders in social media. We all do this.

There's generally an under-acknowledged double-edge to this behaviour however.  Just as we perceive much of what is communicated through body language in addition to what's actually said aloud, we watch those who offer sage words.  Do they 'walk-the-talk', and take their own advice..?  Or are they offering a double-standard to us in terms of what's said versus what they actually do.

This came home to roost twice in the last few weeks for me.  The most recent episode that I saw was the expression of some pretty strong emotional beliefs - changing the world kind of stuff, and then a clear reversal of those same stated beliefs in the desired follow-up actions.  There were other options in this situation - I'd put forth there are always other options.  I walked away from the event with a very watered-down opinion of what was said which I'm 100% certain wasn't the intent or objective.

The second situation was one where I let myself down.  I was asked for some advice and handed out what I believed to be the best course of action, the smartest thing to do.  I found myself in need of that very same advice not a day later, and I personally elected to do almost the opposite of what I'd advised another on. I was painfully aware of the hypocrisy I was involved in, and yet I did it anyway.  Shamefully, I'm hoping my actions weren't noted by the one I gave the advice to, as I don't wish to have the follow-up conversation.  But in my head I've already had it, and it's not pleasant.

When we hear others, or ourselves, preach a certain pathway as the optimal one to take we should be prepared to take it ourselves.  Otherwise we don't really believe in it I don't think.  And while we can say things we don't believe in - that's acting.  I'll humbly suggest we're not approached by others for our acting skills, and to offer that is really a little false to all involved.  So the next time you are seeking wisdom from another be sure to ask - "Is that what you'd do too?"  And then watch.

The Engagement Paradox

A trend is starting to emerge and it's one worth watching, as it speaks directly to demand creation.  It is interesting as it reflects a paradox, in how we assume behaviours across markets.  Specifically, this rears up in the mobile marketplace, but the trend is worth considering in other ways too.

The foundational piece of information that matters in this case is that the iOS platforms (Apple devices) and the Android platforms (Google's OS powering lots of hardware) are no longer even as we look at use in the US.  Android has approximately 62M phone devices and Apple's phones are used by about 40M people. These figures are from Comscore and are good estimates.  So, you'd think that all things being equal, the traffic generated from Android based operating system devices should be 1.5x that of what we see coming from Apple.  You'd think.

What we saw on Black Friday and tracked courtesy of IBM, was that the demand created on mobile platforms increased this year over last.  This "channel" of online sales increased to 24% of total demand.  Impressive, but frankly explainable by greater mobile platform proliferation across society.  All the millions of devices we hear about being sold on various launch weekends have to be used somewhere.

If we dive into the figures on just mobile shopping, a bizarre trend starts to appear.  Of the demand created, you'd think from device deployment, that the Android universe ought to be responsible for 60% of the mobile shopping, but in fact it's only 21%. The Apple world is responsible for 77% of the demand.  And while both platforms grew in their share of online shopping this year (over last), Android grew at a factor of 3.4 and Apple's iOS devices grew at a 4.8 factor. So the paradox isn't getting smaller, it's actually growing.   Let me say this another way - Apple's engagement on their devices is 3-4X that of Android engagement, and seems to be increasing.

The paradox here if I spell it out is that the devices themselves do similar things, and are aimed at roughly the same segment in society, so we should be seeing equal traction.  Historically, iOS devices have always used up more bandwidth (mobile & wifi) than Android did, but that was partially explained away by Apple having a deeper App library.  It appears however there was something else going here all along.

It seems at face value that the user is either not as engaged to shop/create demand on an Android device; or the user profile of those purchasing Android based devices is fundamentally different than was previously thought.  For what it's worth, this does apply to more than just phones, iPad was the device that 'owned' Black Friday according to IBM. It alone was 10% of all online shopping, more than any single other device, and had 88.3% of the tablet traffic.  Android's "as-good-as-an-iPad" device the Samsung Galaxy was the top Android device at 1.8% of tablet traffic.  This is one of the reasons I'm referring to the OS - operating system, rather than device platform, as the trend we're seeing is OS dependent.

There's lots of other wonderful little nuggets in the IBM report, such as the lack of impact of Facebook and Twitter.  Enjoy the read.

What does this all mean ?  A few things I think.  It means an assumption was made, that wasn't true.  It means we're all individuals in how we elect to engage, and it means that our world is becoming more transparent that we can know this almost as soon as it happens.

Big Data ? Not yet

A current buzz-phrase, "big data" refers to the capture of all we each do online.  It's supposed to enable a revolution in the way business interacts with us, as it captures how we act, what we look at, like, share and search for.  It is the foundation upon which a whole new industry is springing up, many of them telling us it's already dawned.

Now I've been careful with 'tense' here.  It's supposed to is what I said, and it isn't there yet.  Want proof ?  Look in your email today on various cyber-monday deals. (soon Hallmark with have us buying one another cyber monday greeting cards I'm sure).  They sort of align to what we're interested in, but not really.  Big assumptions, bad misses and lots of junk still.  Cyber Monday is the litmus test of big data's arrival.

Today we see the unfulfilled promise of big data, as the refinement of the algorithms, the crunching of yet more data and the general intelligence in analysis isn't quite there yet.  But it is coming.  Just not today.

Smart

I had a small ah-ha moment today, clarifying something that I've wondered about for some time.  A person that I'd accredited with significant knowledge had been out-foxed in the recent past.  And I'd wondered why and how.  It's not a thing one can ask directly about either - "Tell me how you were so blinded to this obvious situation please.."

Today I learned why and therefore how, and it was telling.  Not so much about them and their situation, but rather about me.

I'd forgotten that I shouldn't associate something that I know to be true with someone else, simply because I respect them and believe them to be quite bright.  I'd forgotten that we are each a product of our experience and that's what makes us individuals.  "Smart" isn't a uniform standard, rather it's an ability to deal critically and with wisdom upon that which we have experience, combined with an ability to bring to any situation an understanding and curiosity about what we don't know.  In my own desire to see how smart-ness had failed the person, I wasn't very smart myself.

I do love getting bitten by irony.

Simplify

This ought to be one of our ten commandments of life.

Usability is perhaps the least acknowledged and yet most valuable concept we're aware of.  Usable excellence happens when we aim for simplicity and achieve it.  You can apply this to almost any area of our lives - from processes to products, services to science.

Allow me to illustrate with my vote for best technology, the one that places simplicity at the forefront of its purpose.  The light switch.  Very few people acknowledge this, and yet this little omnipresent tech is everywhere.  It actually does something quite magical that we take for granted.  You see, all the weird and little-understood bits are behind the scene, and if you disagree with that, don't call the electrician the next time it doesn't work, try fixing it yourself.  I recommend not standing in water at the time.

Simplicity succeeds all around us as well.  I recently heard someone talking about the "miracle" of very young children using various iPad and tablet interfaces, with the cutting observation that if our expectations are exceeded because kids can mange a 1-button, touch interface, then perhaps we need higher expectations.  That 1-button approach by the way, is the key to Apple design success.

In the next couple days notice the things and procedures around you.  Look for the over-engineered, over-optioned and well intentioned but badly designed things in your life.  Ask yourself how you might simplify these, and then take that thought-process into whatever you do.  It'll make the world a better place. Guaranteed.

Brazil

I was there for the first time last week, and was asked today why I hadn't written about it.  After-all, it's a significant place by any account, and one that's supposed to inspire us with it's effervescent culture, a growing economy and allegedly some fantastic beaches.

Sure, it was nice, but it didn't impress me.  Perhaps as I was in Sao Paulo.  Not the prettiest, and not the cultural centre.  No beaches, parades or Carnivale in sight.   It's the business capital and yes it was very busy, with incredible traffic and people swarming in every direction.  20-27M people by public accounts.  That's big for a city if that's not obvious to you.  The image at left is Sao Paulo as seen from the ISS, and you can see it's clearly not the most eco-friendly city in the world either.

It had that very large developing-place grey-ness to it.  The air was grey with the exhaust from countless millions of cars, the buildings were grey as that was efficient, and the people were too.  By that I mean they were serious.  This was the place to make money, not fun.

It's interesting to compare/contrast another BRIC country I just spent some time in - China.  In Shanghai, it's about showiness, everything glittered, glowed or screamed for attention.  I imagine Rio de Janeiro might be like that in Brazil, but at this point, I'll only be able to imagine it.

The truth is travelling the globe sometimes take you to places that aren't memorable, and that means we don't talk about them, write about them, or share our photos of them (I didn't actually take a single picture).  But this last point - that it isn't all wonderful - it is worth highlighting here.

Sometimes for something to stand out, there has to be another thing or place it stands out from.

(As a P.S. I am back in Brazil in a couple weeks, and will arrive with an open mind to try to see the colours)

When you can See the Ceiling

Is it easy to touch the ceiling ?  Perhaps if you're almost tall enough, it's something you like to do.  What about when you're outside, ever try it there ?  I'll bet you don't.  It would be pointless, as the ceiling outside is infinite, right ?

Companies and even industries go through the same approach to their markets.  When they know they are in a small marketplace, the objective often becomes about marketshare.  They keenly focus their competitive eye on getting more than the next company.  But when they are in a green-field situation, they are just looking to do a good job and get noticed.  Cirque du Soleil is a company in the latter situation, and they aren't fighting for market-share anywhere - mind-share perhaps to get noticed vs other forms of entertainment -  as they place more and more of their shows ever closer together.

Two weeks ago, the Economist referenced a study done by a mobile/cell phone industry body - GSM.  It spoke to the addressable market size of all phones globally.  There are 5.9B devices out there with an active mobile chip, and 46% or 3.2B people of Earth's 7B total population have one (some have more than one clearly).  They calculated that the addressable market size (the ceiling) was 4.7B people as the very young, elderly, sick etc aren't real potential customers.  That means the mobile phone industry can now race to equip another 1.5B people, and can only hope for an upside of 2.775 B more devices at the current deployment rate of 1.85 devices per user.  Sounds huge right ?  I bet it doesn't if you're Samsung, Apple, Rim, Microsoft, Nokia or any of the host of other organizations trying to get a piece.  It sounds like a race to the finish now.

Knowing all this, my question for you is two-fold.  Do you know your industries' addressable market size, and if you did, would you act differently ?

TEDxToronto

I was fortunate to attend this last week, and I've been thinking about what the people there said since it took place.  It struck me that this is the aspect I'd want to repeat about it, to engage other's desire to visit the talk replays to listen, think and imagine.

TED talks are a little like fine wine.  While you can slurp it, and drain the bottle in pursuit of a quick high, the objective is to savour it.  I'm referring specifically to the act of drinking the wine, not the whole evening that the drinking takes place.  When you sip a nice glass, you keep it in the your mouth, run it around a little and only then swallow it.  The desire is to link the smells and textures to explore the wine - which fruits, flowers or musks do you sense, is there too much or not enough oak-cask in the wine, and how does it sit after you drink it. Does it flow and hum and make the corners of your mouth rise as the mirth inherent in the wine continues to play out ?

I hope you have a wine experience like that.  I know I had a TED experience like that.  The temptation was to explode with an "awesome, great or fantastic" throughout the day. Lots of that popped up in the twitterverse throughout the event.   And it was certainly good in that sense.  But the litmus test of a self-proclaimed inspiring conference like this is the after-glow for me.  Does it still make you think days later ?  Do you still want to link every story you tell to something you heard..?  Are you still humming the music you heard?

TEDxToronto did all that and more for me and I'll encourage you to go find it online and watch the talk replays.  Have a glass of nice wine at the same time, and think of it as an investment in your perspective.

Our Strength becomes our Weakness & The Pending Fall of Apple

Predicting the fall of Apple while they are the most valuable company in the world could be viewed a few ways..

*  there is nowhere to go but down

*  it's blatantly trying to abuse of their popularity to get facetiously noticed

*  it's accurate

*  it's inaccurate

Time will tell on the latter two options, and I won't make comments on the first two, other than to highlight them to demonstrate awareness.

The argument I'd put forth centres on innovation.  Not in a product sense, as clearly they have thousands on staff who do that. Rather in an expectation sense.   The Apple that people have come to love (and in the process make the most valuable company in the history of ever) is one that historically came with regular surprises, entering new markets (phones), developing whole new platforms we didn't know we needed - pods and pads and the like.   It competed ferociously with the likes of the PC folks and the big software folks, and wanted to offer alternate choices.  Obviously Steve Job's was the champion of this approach.

The challenge today (even leaving Mr. Job's absence out of this), is that the Apple of the last 2 years has become iterative.  Indeed, the foundation for this was already in place for this behavior while Steve was at the helm.  There doesn't seem to be company-risking, turn the world upside-down new directions in the pipeline.  I say that with some certainty as the drapery of secrecy that they were so good at in the past has been torn down in recent times.  Even if they failed in some new venture, they re-kindle (no pun) the spirit that put the company on the map, and I might humbly suggest would deliver the biggest bump to their stock price imaginable from exciting their core believers.

Sun Tzu taught us that strategically, our strength becomes our weakness, and Apple's challenge I'll predict is that they have to look away from today's successful product ranges into an unknown future and try to keep blowing away our expectations.  If they don't - their strength becomes their Achilles heel as they'll just continue to leverage their existing lines, diminishing over time the concept their stuff is worth a premium. 

That future is hard to avoid - look at IBM and Microsoft in the 80's and 90's who for shareholder's sake had to keep pushing what worked.  Apple is in a trap now- a success trap, and to prosper needs to move in another direction.  Otherwise they'll be a footnote in technology convergence and quite likely the RIM of 2021.  It may seem unfathomable, but history shows us over and over that every empire ends.

Unless your Passion is there - Don't do it

I came across this from Charles Bukowski.  It spoke to me, and I share it here.

so you want to be a writer

if it doesn't come bursting out of you

in spite of everything,

don't do it.

unless it comes unasked out of your

heart and your mind and your mouth

and your gut,

don't do it.

if you have to sit for hours

staring at your computer screen

or hunched over your

typewriter

searching for words,

don't do it.

if you're doing it for money or

fame,

don't do it.

if you're doing it because you want

women in your bed,

don't do it.

if you have to sit there and

rewrite it again and again,

don't do it.

if it's hard work just thinking about doing it,

don't do it.

if you're trying to write like somebody else,

forget about it.

if you have to wait for it to roar out of you,

then wait patiently.

if it never does roar out of you,

do something else.

if you first have to read it to your wife

or your girlfriend or your boyfriend

or your parents or to anybody at all,

you're not ready.

don't be like so many writers,

don't be like so many thousands of

people who call themselves writers,

don't be dull and boring and

pretentious, don't be consumed with self-love.

the libraries of the world have

yawned themselves to sleep

over your kind.

don't add to that.

don't do it.

unless it comes out of

your soul like a rocket,

unless being still would

drive you to madness or

suicide or murder,

don't do it.

unless the sun inside you is

burning your gut,

don't do it.

when it is truly time,

and if you have been chosen,

it will do it by

itself and it will keep on doing it

until you die or it dies in you.

there is no other way.

and there never was.

Hockey Strike: The False Economics of Ego

The hockey world (at least in North America) is on strike right now.  Big news if you're a fan, and less so if you're not.  They're arguing about money, revenue splits and the like. All interesting if you're involved, but again - not in the least interesting if you're not involved.

All of it though is premised on the assumption of some growth - i.e. the revenue sharing future driven from the growing popularity of their sport.  That was a fine argument to have at the outset before they actually went on strike.  But, like any threat, the power was in the fear intrinsic in the threat itself, and not in the execution of the threat.  What I mean by that is that by actually going on strike and cancelling their games, they have placed the popularity of the sport itself into doubt.  That means any discussion about how to divide up the pennies because they're growing more popular is now based on an assumption that is no longer real.

Look at what happened to baseball from their strike in the mid 1990's.  The sport as a whole sunk and it's taken years to bounce back. By some accounts it hasn't completely recovered yet, as the NFL became the most popular and most followed professional sport in the US.

Hockey which already had seasonality going against it (the Florida or California teams contradiction of being on ice in the heat) as a whole sport will also be set-back significantly. 

The false economics of ego - the players and owners blindness to the fact that they will not maintain a potential fan's wallet-share of attention will result in a long term set-back to an otherwise interesting winter past-time.  It's a shame they don't see that, but I suspect they'll get what they deserve as the outcome.

"Everybody has a plan until....

...you start to get hit" - Mike Tyson.

I don't think I've ever quoted Mr. Tyson before, but I have to say I really like this quote and the idea it speaks to.

Many of us have plans or strategies to do something.  It's not rocket science, it's the way most of us think.  The challenge arises though when the wheels come off our plan, when things start to go astray and we encounter significant difficulties.  When we 'start to get hit'.

Then, most of us abandon the plan we made, and scramble.  And we don't end up rescuing ourselves from the newly uncomfortable (bad) situation, instead we flail.  We didn't foresee difficulty and hence didn't make a contingency plan to deal with it.   As a result we fail at whatever we had planned to do.

As you know by now, I don't think failure is a bad outcome - we learn that way.  But I do think that whatever plan you have should include that fact that you might get hit.  Because sometimes we all do.

Samsung

Let me start by admitting two things:  I think their products are above average and most of the mobile computing / telephony I own is Apple.  I want to own up to assumptions and bias at the outset.

OK, here goes..

I want to like this company - brand upstarts, taking on the incumbent mindshare owner, competing hard to bring out great products and stimulating a customer-value oriented technology bonanza.  But I have a tremendously hard time looking past what I'm going to call some of THE WORST MARKETING AND ADVERTISING IN THE WORLD.

These guys (That's not sexist, they're Korean and that's the way it is there), don't have a clue.  If they did have a clue, they've lost it in a legal fight, as they probably stole it from someone else.  (Too catty ?)
I'm not talking about their intent by the way - the intent is spot on.  Gain enough mindshare from doing big things like Olympic coverage and sitting all over their big competitor's product launches.  Great intent.  Execution wise, it's hugely lacking though.

You may have seen the current TV ad featuring a young man that 'fits' into the line up outside what looks like an Apple store.  He plays with a Galaxy S3, and it ends up he is saving the space for his parents. Ha ha goes the commercial's intended punchline iPhone's are no longer cool - old people want them too. It's cute, and exactly the wrong message.

Why's that you say?  You recalled Samsung and that was the point.

If Samsung had a clue, they'd realize that the percentage of purchases that line up is sub 2% of your opening sales (case in point, Apple sold a 'disappointing' 5M units that first weekend, and I guarantee nowhere close to that number lined up).  The people that do line up are traditionally the "innovators" (This is Everett Roger's definition, adapted by Geoffrey Moore) and relative to others they have no budgets; and everyone in society looks askew at them as if they have technology ADD.

What Samsung showed us was Mom and Dad buying the phone...that's us - the majority of society, those not cutting edge. In other words, it's still good enough for some geeks that still line up, and it's usable enough for Mom and Dad, you know - regular people.  Everytime I see that ad from Samsung, I want to get into a line at an Apple store, as Samsung just validated Apple were the choice for normal people.  The poor guy whose parents wanted the new iPhone5 can't even talk his own family into using the Galaxy he has.  Ug.

This ad, like much of the positioning Samsung has done with their tablet product range highlights that they don't seem to understand how to market themselves versus the competition.  Which is a shame, as Apple needs to be kept sharp by competitors.  Otherwise they'll get complacent and we all lose.

Pivoting

It's getting close. Very close.

Pivot time I mean.  I don't know if you experience this phenomena, but I have a few times.  It's a feeling that starts in your soul and reaches into your daily life, into your gut, that things need to change.  And you do change, and you feel better.  For me, it's comparable to the feeling you get when you know you're going to throw up, and intellectually you understand that's what's needed. While the act is distasteful you do welcome it.  You feel better when it finally happens, relieved even though the experience is less than enjoyable at the time.

When I reach the conclusion that things could be better if change occurred and I fight it -  no change happens.  In me, if I suppress that for a while, it'll eventually emerge as the need to pivot.  Pivot to me means an entire life experience based conclusion that I've waffled long enough over a choice, and it's really time to act.

I notice anecdotally that pivots develop in my own life during extended down time.  Perhaps like fine wine maturing, these determinations must develop their own bouquet   Or perhaps I'm dressing up procrastination as something fancy. Whatever.

But it's close now, and I feel it.

Karma & The Big Picture

A friend who lives in Australia with a finance background used to refer to her Finance counterparts as Ant F^&#%'er's.  Sorry for the crudeness, but the saying and the wonderfully Australian way to capture the detail-level focus always makes me smile.  That particular description has burned itself into my brain and now I think of it automatically whenever I see incredible levels of focus on the minutiae.

By my own nature, I'm not 'social' with ants that way - I tend to be a big picture guy.  That's not a boast; in fact it's probably a weakness as I need to see the larger perspective to validate direction, speed and so on when I'm deep into a project, or working on a deliverable.

Lately, I've had my head down, and haven't been considering the big picture for a variety of reasons. I've been up to my neck in ants.  I came across this today by chance and it reset me nicely.

Call it whatever you want, I'll call it karma here.  Sometimes instead of getting wound up in whatever issues we have, it pays to stop, look up, and marvel with awe at the incredible situation we find ourselves in.  

Being Christian

Let's tackle religion today, shall we ?  That never gets up anyone's nose.

I don't want to debate religions, truths or recent world events that have religiously based triggers, rather I want to talk about behaviours.  Walking the walk versus talking the talk.  This is top of mind for me recently as I seethe a little when I encounter hypocrisy (and one doesn't need to look very far in any direction), and perhaps more pertinently as I've started to wear a bracelet.

A bracelet you say  - is it a cross, a fish, a crucifixion, or a WWJD one ?  Nope, nothing so fancy or overt.  It simply says "pay it forward".  It's intended to incite a degree of kindness towards one another from the wearer, and I think it works for me - I am notably kinder to others when wearing it.  Which makes me think of behavior.  See ? there are always links.

So, how we act towards one other is something for which my antenna is up these days, and there is plenty to witness. More and more as I peruse various media, I'm seeing individuals wrap themselves in God to declare their intentions.  It's various versions of God, to be ultra PC about this, but I happen to have been raised Christian, so I'm most aware of and sensitive to manifestation of Christianity.  I think this is a little like swearing in another language, it doesn't quite fit and feels funny, it's almost unreal to see someone prostrate themselves for their beliefs that you don't happen to share.

I think being Christian should be a little like being pregnant.  Like the old joke goes, you don't get to be just a little pregnant, you either are, or you aren't.  Similarly, if you claim to be Christian or (insert your favourite religion here), you need to 'be' it, full time, no breaks, no exceptions for one day a week etc.  It galls me to see otherwise wonderful, loving people behaving situationally hatefully and spitefully.

I'm not talking about somebody having the odd bad day, and offering various hand gestures in traffic - no I'm referring to someone that defines who they are by their spirituality, and then for a given area of their life,  has an almost polar opposite set of approaches to life.   They're mean in terms kids would use, and we understand clearly.  You know what it makes me think when I come across these people ?  It makes me think their religion and outward graciousness is a cover, and they're actually mean-spirited people.  I bet it makes you think that too.

So here's my own homemade solution - make or source one of these 'pay it forward' bracelets and do something nice for one of these hypocrites.  Then watch as their wrist withers and blackens.  And be thankful it's not you.

As long as you agree with me

It's funny how some people are.  They are otherwise smart and capable and seem to welcome broadening their minds and taking on new tasks.  They seek out new things, and are willing to lend a hand.

They ask for input, and seem welcome it.  Until that is, that they don't agree with it, or it doesn't flatter them, or support the position they've adopted, or goes against something that they feel passionate about.  We see this pop up in politics, and when religion is discussed.  There's even groups that are adamant about their teams (This year, the Cubs will win the pennant).

When these alternative voices are heard, they argue, fight and eventually run away, as they weren't really open to broadening their views, or understanding other perspectives.  They were all about what they believed and that's all.  If we're not on their 'side', then we're against them it seems.

I don't know about you, but I'm not actually aware of anyone (myself included) that knows everything.  What I can say with certainty however is that when I see people (or myself) shut down to other points of view, other opinons or information that may make me consider other options - I know that person is in a dead-end.

So I'm absolutely clear, I'm not saying that different opinions will or should change their mind - but I am suggesting that when we close ourselves down and stop questioning what we thought was right, and draw a line in the sand - then we're in trouble.

Do you vote for Character or Policy ?

The American election is fascinating to watch from afar. I'm not American and given the choices, I'm not sure I'd want to be.  I'm not suggesting the choices are bad at all - it's simply a difficult decision to make.

One one hand you have the incumbent POTUS - a man that deliberates policy slowly, and has underwhelmed many people as he fell short of the expectations thrust upon him.  I don't think we can doubt his character though.  He's a good man, seems to do what he says he will within his power and tells the truth.  He hasn't been a rock star President - but then, who in their own time was actually judged to be one of those..?

You many not like Mr. Obama's policies, but you can't fault the man for who he is.  In an information-overload age and no place to hide, that's a rare quality in a peson. Not many of us are the fine up-standing citizens we portrays ourselves as - let alone those in public office. For that alone the US should be grateful.  There's a lot to be said for thoughtful, solid leadership in times of turmoil.

Competing also is Mr. Romney, who has the advantage of not having had the last four years' as President, scrutinized.  He's able therefore to paint a picture of how different things could have been (when in fact I'm not sure how different they actually are capable of being once you're in the big chair).   Some of his policies are populist, and he has great appeal to many - even as a rich white guy.  Mr.Romney represents change absolutely, but he'll be elected partially because Mr. Obama wasn't, and partially based on his policy stands.  His character is weaker than Mr. Obama's it seems, but he's being given a free pass on that for now. I'm sure he'll discover that exaggeration and playing a little loosely with facts in your stump-speech rhetoric become a tad more troublesome once you are in office.

So the choice to be made is a person who you might trust, but won't do the thing we want, or alternatively, won't be able to accomplish it; and someone we may not trust, but is weaving an effective tale.  It's Character v Policy.   It's a fascinating apples to oranges comparison.

Put the men and actual policies aside - which of these qualities alone would you want to govern you ?  Tough choice.

Looking out to Sea

When we stand before the ocean that is the life ahead of us, we tend to watch where the waves break.   While that's the closest to where we are certainly, there is a whole ocean ahead, full of potential.

Standing nearby always are those who have guided us to this place in our lives, watchful and caring as to how we navigate forward.

Lance and PED's

Ok, call me names here, but I think that the pursuit of Lance Armstrong with performance enhancing drugs (PED's) allegations is a misguided, mean spirited and frankly a stupid vendetta.

Here's my rationale - and it actually has little to do with whether Lance used PED's or not.  (I would be remiss if I also note that there has not been any hard evidence made public, and there is evidence in the form of the hundreds of test we had to do over the years that he was not found guilty, at the time).

The first part of this defence of Lance is that he's being singled out because he won.   Sure other riders have been found guilty, but that's because they tested positive at some point - Lance didn't get caught if I look at this in the worst possible light, and so he's been pursued and that equates to "presumed guilty".  Where I live, that's not how justice works.   We aren't going after the 2nd, 3rd, 9th place finishers as no one cares about how they achieved their results, provided they passed the tests at the time as Lance did.

The second aspect of the defense is the reality of professional competition, whether in the Tour de France, the Olympics or various World Championship forums.  The desire in all these situations is to win, and that carries incredible amounts of financial, patriotic and personal pressure.   Do we really think that the one person that wins is the only one using any kind of performance improvement ?  Are we really that naive ?  Every rider does something, every sprinter pushes the limits into the grey zone, and every weightlifter uses whatever it takes to win.  The key -like professional burglary- is to avoid getting caught.  To not 'use', and suffer the performance penalty has to be a worse option that winning and possibly getting caught.  Look at professional baseball losing two star players just this week to this 'scandal'.  Why do it ?  Well in the latter case I imagine it's to land greatly rewarding contracts.  For the athlete it's got to be easy to rationalise as doing what it takes to stay even.   If everyone does it, then are we still looking at the best athletic performance to win..yes.  If we test for the substances and practices, and don't find them, don't we have to assume that the race/competition was done on even grounds (as in with or without PED's) and the winner is actually the winner.  I think so.

The last aspect of my defense here is the timing.  Lance isn't competing any longer.  He's hung up his racing shoes.  So, the question begs why now ?  (Or even - why not pursue Mohammed Ali,  Carl Lewis, George Best or Eric Heiden)   What is it about Lance Armstrong that drives these sporting authorities to chase him ?  Is it his closely held political views or his potential to be a troublesome candidate from Texas. Perhaps.  These days we may still be naive about sport, but we aren't about politics, and this coordinated movement (now) against Lance smells like politics.  After all, the guy survived cancer, founded a very successful non-profit, dabbles in celebrity and seems squeaky clean - on top of being an American athletic legend.  He's a heck of a potential candidate for anyone, and without declaring red or blue...all need to fear him, and neutralise him.

I'd suggest that the man's accomplishment's are celebrated, because in the playing field at the time,  he won, then he won again and again and again and again and again and again.  That spells extraordinary achievement any way that you cook it.  

Tripping

The value is in the journey, not the destination.

That's our mantra when we go into the woods, though it's probably worth remembering when embarking on other things as well.  When we do go into the woods, we prepare like crazy, and try to think through all the variations that could happen - planning wins the day, and all of what we bring has to be woods-tested and very light as after-all we have what we carry on our backs and no more.  I say "backs" but I mean our canoe in this case.  For anyone unfamiliar with the word "portage" it means you carry all that's in your boat, and your boat (on your head), so that makes weight a concern.

Our tripping took us to a park that we hadn't visited before - on the water. Killarney in Ontario where the typical outdoors experience is complemented by quartzite mountains.  This adds to the scenery certainly, and makes the trip worth the views alone.  It also means you are moving from lake to river to lake across mountains at times, and funny thing about mountains - they're uphill. (hence the weight concern)

The park is remote, but legendary enough that it draws people far and wide, so we did see plenty of others in the wilderness.  You'll have to understand my perspective on this when I say plenty - as we have been in the woods for a few days and never seen a soul.  Plenty means perhaps 4-5 other parties a day, and often on portages and campsites we pass by. It's not Christmas in the mall.

The tripping went well - we accomplished our pre-designated routing and saw what we wanted to see, but we planned poorly in one sense.  You see we didn't build in 'down-time' activities, as the last few trips we'd done were about the 'movement'.  Our schedule normally has worked like this: you break camp by 08:30 or so, having had breakfast, packed up, and cleaned the site so it's spotless for the next adventurers.  Then you go about your route for the day, stopping as you need a break, and for lunch, and often at the end of particularly arduous portages. (A few km's with a pack and canoe on your shoulders, up and down steep hills pushes you a little).  You arrive at the next night's campsite about 4-5pm and get set up, think about dinner, get a fire going and so on.  There's down time certainly, but we don't build in relaxing time as such.  We don't bring chairs, or books, or fishing gear - these just aren't those kinds of adventures for us.  Killarney as beautiful as it is is smaller than we were used to, and so we were completing our day's trip by lunch time.  While that certainly isn't bad, the truth is we hadn't planed for a set of half-days, and hence it wasn't attractive to us as an experience.

The first afternoon we ended up storing our boat in the woods on the lake we would sleep on, and packed up our load to the highest local mountains just after lunch. We aimed to do a 10km or so trail and got lost, so still probably covered some distance, but found our way back to the boat a little tired, chagrinned and more than aware that Teva's are great water sandals, and not so good for mountaineering.  Still we were at camp by 4pm.  The next day, we were on our camping lake by 11am.  So we pushed out of the park a day early.

In hindsight, we did what we aimed to do, though if I was going to do it again tomorrow, I'd pack differently, with more campsite (luxuries) that we could pass the time with.  I like relaxing as much as the next person.  I don't feel that we 'failed' in any way either, just that we'd planned poorly. That meant we couldn't enjoy the full potential of the journey we undertook.

I Got Fired Today

Not a great day, as days go.

Sometimes, despite our best efforts, we don't do well enough against the established standard, and that's what happened I think.   I regret it happening as it doesn't feel good, but intellectually I understand the decision and I know it didn't happen because I slacked off, or didn't put enough effort into it.

Specifically, I was fired from an associated commitment I had - teaching a segment on sales system automation at a locally respected business school (university). This is something I did that was above and beyond my normal work-life.  I enjoyed it, and tried to pass along the benefit of my experience.  I think I was successful in doing that, but by an objective measure, that's also not what I was there to do - I was asked to address an area of business life that is painful and problematic for almost everyone, and to do so within a mixed group of 20 or so people from different companies, in three hours time.  My remit sat amidst other learning these same people had taken on - ranging from conceptual and theoretical ideas about how sales and marketing work together to presentation skills.

The disconnect happened in expectations I think.  You see my area was almost the only one where the audience had some previous experience, and came into the time we had together with genuine pains. I differentiate this from a more generic desire to know more, or work smarter in general.  In many ways, I was asked to try to do the impossible, and I saw that and discussed it with those that had assembled the couse materials.   But at the end of the day, participants rate these courses, and we live or die by these ratings.  I've no issues with that - just that my judges addressed my work as to whether it was applicable to, and/or solved their issues vs the other presenters who would have been judged on whether the ideas were good, or potentially offered an implementation pathway towards working better. I'd offer a medical analogy of a class wanting to know about practicing medicine in general, who arrive  in this session with a stomach ache.  My task was to educate them, and cure the stomach ache - everyone else just had to educate them.

So, in taking on the impossible, did I see this as a potential outcome ?  Yes, but I didn't acknowledge it as a realistic outcome - again with mismatched expectations.

One of the little sayings I like is that if you don't fail 20% of the time, you're probably not trying hard enough.  I'm going to chalk up this experience to that I think - I tried to do the impossible and failed.  I'm glad I tried though.

Shanghai

Work took me to China this week – a long haul for 3 days to be sure, but interesting and instructional all the same.  Few places in the world look like China – the ultra modern (bordering on garish) architecture emphasized with neon light shows.  There’s a correlation here usually – the uglier the building, the more dramatic the multi-colored lighting effect.  The city hums which in 35-43 degree heat (that’s ‘really hot’ to you Fahrenheit types) is all the more amazing as the latin siesta approach has never taken root here.

Shanghai is special amongst Chinese cities, with its historic Bund district of western decadence and seemingly more commercial focus too – Beijing can have the ‘State’ power structures, we just want to have fun and make a few yuan seems the city’s beck and call.  Like New York and Hong Kong, it burps and throbs in barely concealed energy.  It’s exorbitantly pricey and dirt cheap at the same time.  It’s also a real tourist mecca for the Chinese themselves, with the waterfront boardwalk heaving with picture takers from all over this big country.

Shanghai has some tremendous infrastructure, the magnetic levitation train for example that runs from the airport to the city (sort of) capable to speeds up to 400 km/h.  But it arrives at an odd, non-central location.  Subway’s criss-cross the city, but where they connect, you actually come up to ground level, and go back down.   It’s a city of visionaries, where the wow-effect is much more important than usability.

English capabilities and sign-age is smattered across the landscape – billboards and international brands deceptively suggest multilingualism where very little exists.  Don’t get into a taxi unless you have your address written in Putongua – and even then you’ll argue with the driver who doesn’t feel like going in that direction.  (Did I mention it feels like 45 degrees out there on the street ?)

China remains a study in complimentary contrasts and Shanghai is its’ darling.  

Health - The Verdict

I promised an update and I keep my promises. The last six week of eating healthy had their share of advantages and disadvantages. I was at home for much of the time, but also travelled for business in the period which was bound to make things more complicated. I cheated a couple times - this was a voluntary thing after-all - though the extent of the cheats was small and not material.

Overall ? I feel better. Hard to characterize it beyond that, but I'll attempt to nonetheless.

You know that stressed, tired feeling you have in your brain/mind/soul when you're just about to go on a needed vacation ? And the result of the vacation - where you are not stressed, regain the bounce in your step, and feel mentally refreshed ? Well, that's the closest thing I can compare how it physically feels. I'm fractionally lighter, tighter, and I do feel better.

Was it worth it ? Absolutely.

Will I do it again ? Yes, in fact I plan to go back to this style of eating as soon as I'm back from my current business trip.

Which brings me to the downsides - there isn't great choice, and some of the choices, inventive as they are, just don't taste very good. Bread products without that gluten aren't that nice - or at least I've not found any that I'd buy again, or want to consume again. I'm probably lucky that that hasn't been a big downside for me. I can take it or leave it as far as bread goes. Convenience (and bacon) is what I missed the most. The ability to make simple choices was gone. I had to really concentrate on what was on each food I ate, much like a real sufferer of Celiac disease.  That frankly was a pain for a person like me whose big decisions in the past was which fast-food place to stop it (not if I could).

I managed to survive a business trip and stick to the plan while in San Francisco, but as I'm off to Asia at the moment, I think that's going to be impossible.

What did I end up eating ?  Lots of fruit and veggies, some fish, and I even found gluten free chips (Boulder - yum!), and ice cream - (Breyers..who knew?).  Hey this was an experiment, not a monastery commitment.

Should we all do this ?  Well, those who've read more than one of these posts understands that I try to never tell people what they should do, but rather I encourage you to understand your own decisions and make peace with them, or change them.  In this case - I'd suggest you also tried this.  You might also like it.  If you don't, the downside is that you might get temporarily healthier.  Not much of a price to have to pay, now is it ?

Looking forward, looking back

Much like New Year's, a birthday seems like the right time to both reminisce about the times that were, and cast your eyes forward to what's ahead.  Tomorrow is my birthday, so indulge me while I wander the synapses of recollection of my early life and recall some key moments.  These will clearly mean more to me than you, but like anything else, a glimpse into how another looks at things, is often instructional for each of us as we consider how we approach the same thing.

My earliest memories are in a row-boat.  I think my mother and father are there too. As I recall it now, it looks like New York's Central Park, which is of course not possible as I wasn't ever there until years later.  That's what the movies will do to you.

When I was older, but still young, we lived on a lake.  We moved up there and I was united with my new family.  I recall visiting before the move, and huddling in the corner, trying to be invisible to all the noise and activity of four other kids around me.  Memories in that house weren't all frightening though - I also recall my mother ironing in our living room as we were watching the moon landings on our b&w TV.  It was a renovated cottage - a summer home, and had lots of great places to hide, including the TV ariel that would have been 100feet high.  I could climb it and go up onto the roof - our dog never found me there.  I also recall jumping on my Dad - Kato-style from the Pink Panther movies.  I'm sure that exactly what he was hoping for after a long day of work, and a big commute. (does yur dog bite?)

In spring and autumn before the lake was frozen solid - in those freezing/thawing times of the year, I'd go out alone in our little un-sinkable aluminium canoe and play 'ice-breaker'.  I had to wander far-out and now I look back and wonder how I didn't flip it and drown.  I had a sense of confidence in that little boat as it was rimmed in styrofoam, not quite understanding how the frigid water wouldn't have been so kind to my little body. I wasn't quite as unsinkable of course.

Many childhood memoires involved our dog - and long stretches playing by ourselves.  To my mind, I'd go out in the morning, and show up again at dinner time.  Of course, my ability to playback episodes of Gilligan's Island and Hogan's Heroes means I also spent some time on the couch.

If I relate this to my own kids, I can't say I let them be as wild as I sensed I was.  Granted it was different times, but that's as much to do with the speed of information sharing these days as anything else.  I enjoyed being a kid and hope my own children did too.  I was free then and while I did find my fair share of mischief, I could express myself in making a fort in the woods, or building an army base through the garden (sorry Mom), or trying to see how I could get the lake to catch fire. (Don't ask)

Getting older probably places a rose-coloured lens on earlier days, but that's not a bad way to consider your own life. Looking back, I wouldn't have wanted it any other way.